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LINK American Religion in 2030 – Religion in Public

FTA: Really the most important thing I was looking for was when the lower bound for the religiously unaffiliated was higher than the upper bound for any other religious group. Or put more directly: when does the model say that the “nones” are going to be the largest religious group in America? That answer is in 2029. This is the year that if nones grow at the lowest path projected and Catholics grew at the highest path, the religiously unaffiliated would still be larger. The nones are estimated to be 27.1% of Americans in a decade. If the question is when they will be the largest group, irrespective of margin of error the answer is 2023 at 24.1%.

zblaze 7 Oct 28
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6 comments

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1

You are assuming that the Nones will keep growing at the present rate. Maybe, but in my experience the growth comes in cycles, not a steady upward progression. The Nones grew in the 60s and 70s, but then came the 80s in which the trend reversed and continued to do so into the 90s. Atheism and agnosticism actually was growing in popularity in the later part of the 19th century but then died down, especially with WWI. When atheism became associated with Communism in the late 40s and 50s, you couldn't hardly find any. Deism was quite popular in the later part of the 18th century which is why many of our Founding Fathers were deists. More Catholics become active when they like the Pope, which makes no sense to me (having been raised Catholic) because it would seem that either you believe that the office of the papacy is divinely inspired or you don't regardless of who the present pope is...yet it happens. Popularity matters. So, does fear, and people become more religious when they are fearful of the death and of the future. So, if the future becomes a fearful desperate time, either because of climate change, or a major war, or a global epidemic, then I would expect the number of religious to increase regardless of what the current trend may be.

1

This doesn’t factor in the unstable nature of the world, only if we carry on as we are which is extremely unlikely.

We are inextricably entwined globally and an assassination of a minor leader in a third world country can tip the balance on many unstable situations.

1

Good good news! I’m so tired of hearing about Christian Nationalism and Project Blitz. A future of rationalism!

2

The future looks good

2

Hopefully in the future, as knowledge increases, religions will become obsolete.

6

So, we do not have to kill & eat evangelical babies? We can just wait?

That's disappointing, especially with the holidays coming up.

I just figure out a nice garlic sauce recipe for babies. I can haz baby-burger?

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