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Prediction: Democratic Landslide in November?

Chain of reasoning.

There will be many Trump supporters in hospital ICUs with Covid on election day. They will not vote and it will make a difference in the election.

David Pakman, Infections SPIKE in Trump-Voting Areas, explained that large cities (e.g., NYNY) were hit by covid before rural areas because of international air travel. Furthermore, cities tend to be liberal compared to rural areas. Trump voters tend to live in more rural areas, currently with few people infected by covid. For some of them, the pandemic is fake news. The headline, "Infections SPIKE", is about the rate of infection increasing (e.g., doubled in a week) not total cases, which is small compared to cities.

Dr. John Campbell said that warm weather may see lower covid infection rates than cool weather. He reasons people getting fresh air are less likely to be infected than people staying inside to avoid cold and poor weather. If his thesis is true, then the number of infections in Trump land should remain low throughout the warmer months. School starts in September, increasing infection rate. Wherever the weather is poor in September, infections will increase. By election day, lots of Trump supporters should be in hospitals.

Be careful and good luck.

EdEarl 8 June 2
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4 comments

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1

I can see where it could have a slight effect! However much works for me! Another thing that I am noticing is the 30s generation want be voting very much for trump and that will be a lot of people who have not voted before! One way or other the Orange lunatic will be gone...hopefully to another planet! Because he is a parasite on humanity here! Maybe he will take his followers with him!

He and followers ending up in prison would satisfy me.

2

I think the only way the virus will affect the election is it will continue to decimate the economy. When tRump supporters start to go hungry and lose their homes they might start to think twice about their choice. The Democrats took over after the 2008 crises because of how the Republicans contributed to the economic crash.

Yes, and republicans finally are turning on the Orange Ogre.

1

I doubt very much if the epidemic will have much effect on the election. In the overwhelming majority of cases the symptoms are mild or non-existent and recovery is fast and certain. Only a few hundredths of one percent of the population are dying from the virus, and most of those are near the end of their lives anyway.

Nevertheless, if it is absolutely necessary to turn the epidemic into a political hate-fest, we should look at those deaths. One can not recover from a death—those who died will hopefully not be voting. Here’s a map that shows which states have suffered the most deaths per capita, and it looks to me like most of those are Democrat states. It appears that the Republican areas across the country have generally been only lightly affected, and I doubt if that is going to change much despite the hopes of some.

[theguardian.com]

Yes, the death rate is low from covid, in general, and deaths arent likely to be a significant impact. My comment was about a high number of trump voters being hospitalized during the election.

2

What concerns me is the possibility that COVID-19 will spread among the demonstrators in cities now. There are large number of minorities who could fall ill, or be imprisoned. That would not bode well for an election. The demonstrations could be super spreader events. At least many of them are wearing masks.

But the police are also there in large numbers. They are crowded and not even wearing masks (except when dispensing tear gas).

Unfortunately, the demonstrations will spread the infection. However, most of those infected will have recovered by election day.

Statically, a certain percentage won't recover, and especially if they transmit it to their older relatives before they show symptoms. That's the true danger of a super spreader event. That said, I'm more frightened of what another 4 years of tRump would be like.

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