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Why was the popular vote so close in the US presidential election?

Regardless of the eventual winner, one thing that stood out was how close the popular vote was. What does it imply that the polls, predicting a Biden win with up to 10% more votes, were wrong. Why were many voters afraid to tell even an anonymous pollster that they preferred Trump over Biden?

What we choose to believe the reason to be greatly impacts how we, as a country, proceed.

  • We could choose to believe that the Trump supporters are simply closet racists, sexists, and bigots who secretly want to support one of their own - doing so reaffirms the narrative that America is a terrible place.

  • Or, we could choose that they were not buying the narrative that America is fundamentally flawed with racism, sexism, and other forms of bigotry .

  • Or, we could choose that they simply believed that Trump was a better choice despite the best efforts of mainstream news, social media, and the entertainment industry to highlight his flaws - factual or not.

Especially for Biden/Harris supporters, how to move forward really depends on what was learned from this election. If it's the first option, perhaps Trump supporters simply need more CRT (aka, racial sensitivity) and similar training? If it's the second, perhaps it's a time to re-examine some of the assumptions of the progressive movement? If it's the third, perhaps these organizations should try harder?

What do you think?

Why did Trump get more votes than the polls predicted?

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Admin 9 Nov 5
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37 comments (26 - 37)

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The popular vote in the 2020 election was not close. Biden won by over 7 million votes (about a 10% margin of victory).

0

Like most things in life it is much more complex than just branding all Trump supporters as racist or morons. It’s therefore impossible to choose any one particular group in which to vote in your poll. There are many people, both in America and here in the U.K.too, who genuinely think he did a good job over the past few years, as the US economy was apparently doing pretty well until the Covid-19 pandemic put a spanner in the works. There were many people here in the U.K. on the political right who wanted him to win.

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Nothing closet about 70 million people who voted for Trump. These people have showed their colors and rightfully so. Thats the American way. Trump made it ok to show you're pro racism and bigotry and everything else he stands for. A vote for him said hell yeah I'm with you, derr Trumpf! Hell some even want him to be king.

I look at the states who voted for this piece of shit and I understand why the majority of them voted the way they did. KS, WV, MS, LA. etc, They all make sense to me. All places of deep generational racisim and bigotry. Their man is the supreme skinhead, and they don't care about 'merica. they want the south to rise again.

I look at the places that voted for biden, and I see places of open minded, educated, and well rounded Americans who saw the POS for what he is,  and decided they had to put a stop to it.   We are lucky enough of us came forward.  Only 4 million approximately so far I believe is the count.  You would think there would be more, but it is just wishful thinking.  Goes to show just how fragile our democracy really is... If it weren't for these few, we could well be on our way to a full fledged dictatorship and possibly another civil war.  
0

@JeffMurry My response was not, and clearly pointed out that in real numbers the statement was wrong. Your point is like saying since only a very small percent of people die from Covid the deaths are insignificant. It also ignores that a small percent of a very large number is a large number.

Remember the old saying "".Figures don't lie, but liars figure

0

Trump supporters need a fucking soul and an education.
My question is, why so many posts about Trump? Are YOU a closet Trumper? It would seem so, based on the consistent tone of your posts about the most disgusting excusse for a human on the planet. Nice work, you just ruined this site for me.

0

@JeffMurray Note in my 11/6 post I was referring to number difference NOT percentage difference. I said and repeat 4,000,000 is NOT a small difference.

But the question posed in the OP was about popular vote points (percentages).

0

Also, I think some conservatives may say that climate change may or may not be an issue, but they are not going to vote to spend as much money on it as Mr. Biden is intending.

kmaz Level 7 Nov 7, 2020
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It's not an either/or, nor are they mutually exclusive. I personally know people that fit into one or more of all three categories.
Honestly, I do not believe there is "a way forward". Large swaths of the Republican party do not believe in truth, facts, reason, logic, science, or bipartisanship. All they care about is consolidating power and they don't give a fuck what they have to do or who they have to hurt to get it, keep it, and expand it. Colbert talked some nonsense last night about how Republicans need to stand up and speak out now because it was their last chance and people were going to take note of who was silent. I love the guy, but what fucking country is he living in? The Republicans happened to lose the Executive branch maybe but in no way was it a repudiation of Trump and what he has turned the Republican party into. Trump is going to clear well over 70 million votes, not lose a single house race, actually gain several seats, and likely not even lose control of the Senate even though they had significantly more seats up for reelection. Even more telling is the fact that the worst of the worst when it came to greenlighting the awful shit Trump was doing, Mitch McConnell, didn't even lose his seat (proving it was not a repudiation of Trump OR the Republican party). They love that gelatinous pile of fuck scum because he knows how to get power, keep power, and wield power to most effectively elicit liberal snowflake tears. This country is packed nearly halfway full of awful fucking piles of shit that will gladly support a fascist as long as it doesn't mean a fucking liberal takes the reins and forces communist shit on them like clean water, breathable air, and renewable energy. This will continue to get worse, even if people like me that see the writing on the wall and are willing to speak the truth kept quiet. There is no road high enough we could take that would elevate their position. They would just see us as weak, stupid pussies and use that opening to run up the score even more. I do not see this ending any other way than the complete destruction of our democracy. Fuck, one side is already calling for it, (Trump "claimed states for electoral purposes" what in the ever-loving fuck kind of Dictator shit is that?) and that side thinks the other side is too.
And before anyone tells me I'm wrong, be ready to explain some of the times the Democrats didn't fight dirty like Republicans do and the Republicans respected it and played fair, too. I'm sure Merrick Garland will agree with you from his seat on the Supreme Court.

0

Voters are refusing to believe fake news. VOTERS KNOW BIDENs is a worse criminal than TrumpOLINI. As usual elections are rigged against popular leaders like Ralph Nader Dr Jill .... Bernie & WWW.HOWIEHAWKINS.US.... LOW information voters simply split upon the 2 evils

0

I voted something else/explain below. Here is my explanation:

  1. First, and foremost, please stop aiding the narrative that the vote is fair and correctly done. It is not. The system has been radically corrupted for years now if not decades, and that continues to this day, through a number of different and evolving methods. Trump hit the ground running four years ago further corrupting the system, in particular by strengthening (and rewarding) the effort to purge legitimate voters by (among other things) appointing one of the top purge leaders (Kris Kobach) as a key official in the hideously ironically and cynically named Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity

[en.wikipedia.org]

When polls differ from a vote, there are at least three possibilities:
a) The polls are wrong and the vote counts are correct.
b) The vote counts are wrong and the polls are correct.
c) Both are wrong to some degree.

with some qualifier that defining "wrong" or "correct" may be needed.

In this case there is ample evidence that the vote counts do not reflect hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of voters who were incorrectly purged from registered voter lists (under guise of the snipe hunt for fraudulent voters).

This journalist is a brash pain in the neck, but this article sums up roughly some of the recent numbers on this (in the millions of purged voters in 2016, by his count).

[gregpalast.com]

As to why this sort of issue can remain so obscure to so many, I think it is in part simply due to American Stupid (which is actually how that comes to pass, including both secular and theistic beliefs in my view) and it is in part due to the efficaciousness and distraction of some of the snipe hunts that the voting system destroyers send us on.

I would like to make a request that in the future we include an option in polls and discussions like this either to be able to choose that we consider the polls closer to reality than the vote, or some discussion of why this is not considered a creditable enough viewpoint to allow for that choice.

  1. Second, and perhaps less importantly, to the extent that it is correct that we can look at the closeness of the vote in many cases and ask "what the heck?", my answer is that actually it should involve a deep and lengthy conversation involving psychology, government philosophy, morality and so-on. There is just a "up is down, black is white, right is left, good is bad, bad is good, freedom is prison, etc." 1984 type unreality to many of the conversations we are having in the US, and in some ways I don't think it can be unpacked in 5 second sound bites or voting summaries. However, in other ways, my shorthand explanation:
    a) Democrats are NOT listening, at ALL, to the LEGITIMATE concerns of working Republican voters. They are dismissive of attempts to discuss whether they are advocating for socialism and what socialism is, and whether it is good or bad, and by what standards. Many Democrats are almost laughably tone deaf on points having to do with why many people vote Republican. Some Trump voters are voting as much AGAINST what they perceive as the immorality and wrongness of what they perceive as Biden's Robin-Hood Socialism, perhaps much more than they are voting "for" Trump.
    b) Many US citizens are believing Christians and much of our religion is crap and leads to crap gullible thinking.
    c) In Jewish culture, including atheist/secular Jews (my culture, so I will presume to offer my view) I think a lot of Jews see through this, but some do not. Some may be seduced as one-issue voters stupidly thinking they are defending Israel and finally supporting the radical right hard-line that is needed (in their view) in the MIddle East).
    d) Many voters may be "all about the money" and are of the view (whether stupidly or otherwise) that in the short run they will get theirs more readily if Trump is President via a supposedly better economy under Trump than it supposedly would be under someone else.
    e) I think many Trump voters are older or business owners or the like, who have worked a long time, and have some mileage on the idea that they are going to look past personality and personal criticisms to what they perceive as performance metrics, and they are getting some of the things they want (the wall, trade negotiations with China, a stance on abortion that agrees with their stance, etc.). They turn a blind eye toward Trump's outright fascist tendencies. I think part of the reason they do this is that somehow (historically) it is easier for some people to demonize and criticize socialism/statism, but not to understand the dangers of fascism/statism. I"m not sure I could really say why.
    f) addendum: and yes, a lot of Trump voters have, mixed in with their their reasoning, some portion of plain old ignorance/hatred/irrationality, and Trump is an absolute master at appealing to this.
    g) addendum: and yes, there is some activity from foreign countries which seems to be gaslighting (if that is not a misuse of the term) some of the worst of US voter reasoning.
kmaz Level 7 Nov 6, 2020
0

It's a combination of all the reasons lusted.
Some people will support the person who says what they want to hear.
Confirmation bias, it's not just for breakfast anymore.

Evolution is a slow, painful process.

KKGator Level 9 Nov 5, 2020
0

"perhaps Trump supporters simply need more CRT (aka, racial sensitivity) and similar training?" Okay what if they are minorities? Do they still need it? Or do you make tht decision based on race(ism)?

I've read that Hispanics in FL/TX voted in higher numbers for Trump than was expected.

@Admin True and they are not the only minorities that voted for Trump.

@TheMiddleWay They know that taken to the extremes it's not a good system. And I think we have been going to extremes lately with Dem leadership not taking appropriate role to curb it.

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