Plague has a much higher death rate. By far. One of the forms of plague has a 100% death rate.
You don’t know what “my way” is as I never really outlined it. I think like some others you read some of your own demons into what I was saying or just responded to the headline maybe?
I just don’t see the death rate being high enough to wreak havoc as the world has never seen before. Thats rather alarmist. Unless the thing mutates or has some kind of hibernating ability we haven’t seen yet I don’t see how it’s going to be worse than the Black Death or the 1918 flu.

You didn't anser my question. plague has not only a vaccine, but a cure, so you need to back off your claim, it is only in untreated cases that 100% death rate is true.

@glennlab sorry seemed like a rhetorical device more than an actual question. I don’t know when the last time was. Prolly before we had freezer trucks back in 1918.
Even treated cases of septicemic plague have a huge death rate though. If plague had as low a death rate as covid19. We would not have had the Black Death episode. Am I wrong about the covid19 death rates being estimated at .5 to 3.5. I know it’s too early to have solid numbers but that’s pretty low to selling off our future for.

@JacobMeyers Mortality rates are not as important as infection rates. Plague infects 1-3K people per year and requires an itermediary infection source (fleas). Vovid-19 has nearly2.5 million confirmed cases with an underreport factor estimated at between 10 and 1000. Current testing rates will take 6 years to test everyone in the US once. Current mortality rate is 6.8%. So right now we do know that it is highly infectious, has a high motality rate, can live outside the body, has no known cure or treatment. I don't think any of us know enough to take a chance. The infection model more closely resembles the cold or the flu than the plague. With a vaccine the flu infects 40-50 million each year, with about 50-60,000 deaths. We could expect covid 19 to infect 100-200 million without mitigation.

@glennlab 6.8 is def higher than any number I’ve seen. You know that number even if correct drops if cases are indeed being under reported right? What entity is reporting that number? I understand high infection rate is one of the things that make a disease a special interest. It’s really the reason covid19 is on the radar at all I think.
Also if a severe economic collapse occurs we won’t be testing everyone and many who actually do need help won’t get it. It as with the virus itself is a REAL problem. I’m not saying at all that our societies should ignore this altogether. Modern 1st world life absolutely requires a robust economy. All of our lives are going to be very different (and in my opinion worse) if we go into a depression. I’m not claiming to have an answer or even an idea of where our efforts cause more harm than good but we all know there IS a point where that happens. We have to keep it in mind so we don’t get there.

@JacobMeyers The 6.8 is the current CDC number, and yes once all the cases are properly reported it should drop to 1-3%. If we get the 100 to 200M cases, that is 1-6M dead. Right now we are in mitigation and we have no idea how bad the rebound rate will be, We are already in a recession with UI rates above13% and that is only that low because the state systems can't handle the new applications. I don't know the answers and I wish we had some leadership that had some foresight.

@glennlab well that’s easy to agree with. Thanks for the cdc info. I’m going to read about when I have time. It is too bad there’s not an easily identifiable tipping point. This is like real life all grey and wibbly wobbly

Totally unfair and you are instilling your personal demons into my post. Saying I callously assume those who will die are the less important of society is 100% erroneous. Point out exactly where I said Anything at all along those lines. You made a straw man because it’s something you wanna argue against. I understand that totally. I am on your side of THAT issue all the way. That’s not what the post was about though.

LoL I sometimes skip the long posts too, even though I like reading.

Short version is the overzealous reactions to this particular threat may cause more long term problems than solve immediate issues. I think a severe economic collapse is a real threat and will ultimately cause more human suffering and death than this virus.

@JacobMeyers I understand what you are saying. I suggest this is a very different time for all nations and mistakes will be made. We can only learn from each other. The most successful response seems to be by Jacinda Arden in NZ so perhaps that model could be taken into the future.

Unfortunate for US there is an imbecile that wants to call the shots rather than engage in collaboration, consequently I suspect America will have a difficult exit process.

@Geoffrey51 my worry of course is the longer we are in lockdown the more difficult the recover imbecile or not. With an imbecile in charge it might take longer than otherwise but that’s just another factor, not the only one.
I’ll look into what NZ is doing, sounds interesting. I like that Germany has been super diligent in track and trace. Here in my state they are actually refusing to test people without SEVERE symptoms. People with mild covid19 symptoms are actually being turned away from local healthcare outlets. Wtf! How stupid are we?

I get that. My post got rambly in a way that was cathartic for me so I didn’t go into it. The onslaught of the virus had to be slowed, absolutely. That’s why I’m not against the efforts to do so. We need time for the healthcare system to ramp up. I hope to high hell the companies that make respirators and hospital beds are working 3 shifts 24/7. My point is that when there’s more beds meds and respirators we need to let the economy start it’s recovery.
If we go into another Great Depression the healthcare options for a great many people are going to be worse than now with the virus raging.

Take your political crap to the sandbox. Got no interest in it

@JacobMeyers funny you certainly use all the talking points. But nice attempt at deflection and misdirection--lots around here like you. Facts don't matter.
"At the end of November 2019, a total of 2494 laboratory-confirmed cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), including 858 associated deaths (case–fatality rate: 34.4%) were reported globally; the majority of these cases were reported from Saudi Arabia (2102 cases, including 780 related deaths with a case–fatality rate of 37.1%). Sorry there havent been enough deaths for you around the world but the U.S. is #1

Wouldnt hurt for you to find the facts before you just say "it seems" which is akin to trumps "some people are saying."

If you think $1200 helps someone you're out of your fucking mind. So you know what you can do with your crap

The largest group kicking off now, other than nursing home "captives" are aged 45-60.

Please be more adult than to call it China-19. I don’t think we need to loose any of the at risk people. I myself am in three of the at risk groups. Why you all wanna argue against things I didn’t even say? I said Zilch about specific at risk groups. This isn’t about that.
People like me who are more at risk should be extra cautious. I’d love it if the world would take on the burden of protecting me and to an extant I think you all should, thanks. I however depend on meds I absolutely could not afford without insurance let alone without a job. So I NEED the economy to recover well enough to keep my job. Without it I will just succumb to the things that put me in an at risk group instead of the virus itself. Either way the virus will have ended me. Don’t sell MY future so you can have warm fuzzy feeling about protecting me.

@JacobMeyers Following Bill Maher's lead on a name, he’s plenty adult for me. What you need is Single-payer Universal US Healthcare … but why am I getting the creepy feeling you’ve voted Republican - thus against it your entire adult life..? And, this isn’t only about ‘YOU.’

@Varn this also isn’t political. I voted for Dukakis and Ralph Nader the few times I voted btw. Rather than waxing political and belligerent JUST address my points. Being a fan of the scientific method I’m more than happy to see where my thinking is wrong.

@JacobMeyers Your thinking can feel right, but if viewed in the larger context, actually be dead wrong. I’m envisioning a chart someone posted on facebook weeks ago … as they noticed the politically inspired ‘time to call it quits’ attitude beginning to percolate from the White House... The chart/ meme correctly predicted the attitudes that, if the social isolation and shutdown appears to have worked, “we’ve obviously done too much.” But if cases continued to escalate, “we’re not doing enough.”

It’s a no-win situation No one likes this, and everyone’s aware of the damage, but most are willing to err on the side of safety (as are the true experts) ..than to cave too early … not wanting to waste our shared sacrifices to this point..

I’m ready for it to be over, but not willing to sacrifice the lives of those I doubt would survive if struck. Do vote, but for competence, not ideology.

@Varn as I mentioned I have zero interest in politics. I don’t really watch tv or read news blogs or do anything where I am likely to be influenced. These thoughts were entirely my own. Also as I mentioned to some others I don’t know When the right time to end lockdown is. Only that there IS a time when it does more harm than good. We have to stay cognizant if that lest we end up going past the point of no return.