Trump has evangelical voters locked in.

By Adam Wren and Megan Messerly

06/13/2024

INDIANAPOLIS — Eight years ago, needing a running mate to vouch for him among skittish evangelicals, Donald Trump turned to Mike Pence, tossing an olive branch to Republicans wary of the thrice-married real estate mogul who once said he was “very pro-choice.”

It’s a different story now: To those same voters this year, according to interviews with nearly two dozen religious leaders gathered here for the annual meeting of the Southern Baptist Convention, Trump’s selection is bordering on a forgettable formality — less interesting to them because they’ve already made up their minds to back him, even if begrudgingly so.

“I think evangelicals will generally, by and large, vote for him regardless of who he picks,” said Kevin McClure, a member of a Baptist church in Louisville, Kentucky, who spoke as he waited for Trump himself to beam into a meeting held on the sidelines of the convention. “Because the Republican platform currently, in the very least, has a place for pro-life priorities, even if they’re not as strong as many of us would want.”

Or as Mike Spradlin, a delegate to the convention from Memphis, Tennessee, put it: “I don’t really know that it moves the needle one way or the other.”

It’s not that the vice presidential pick is irrelevant to the faithful. Many evangelicals here say they want Trump to pick someone who is sufficiently anti-abortion, or even to Trump’s right on the issue — both because that person could press their cause inside the West Wing and because he or she could be in line to inherit the MAGA movement.

Albert Mohler, a prominent evangelical theologian and president of Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, argued that Trump’s vice presidential pick could mean the difference between on-the-fence voters staying home or turning out to the polls come November. Mohler said Trump should pick someone who not only says the right things on abortion but “hopefully has a track record of defending them.”

But who, exactly, Trump picks from his shortlist is of far less concern. To most evangelicals here, the people Trump’s considering — at least the ones they know — seem to pass that litmus test.

“Who’s the Black guy?” asked Bonnie Fitch, of Carter Creek Missionary Baptist Church in Greenville, Kentucky.

Asked whether she was referring to South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, the former presidential candidate who is known for his evangelical faith, she and her husband lit up. “I just like the way he’s been speaking,” said Bonnie’s husband, Sid.

Trump’s campaign is said to be vetting eight potential candidates: Scott, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Florida Rep. Byron Donalds, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson. His pick will likely be announced close to the party’s convention in Milwaukee beginning on July 15.

Trump is entering a very different kind of veepstakes now than he was in 2016. His governing style is clearer now than it was then.

“We took a risk on what he said he would do, and he came through and he delivered in that case,” said Scott Colter, the CEO of the Danbury Institute, which wants to “eradicate” abortion, as he introduced Trump’s pre-recorded video message to a room full of Southern Baptists. “And so we can debate all day long the merits of who Donald Trump is and his personality and all of those different things. But he did what he said he would do. … And I’m tremendously grateful for that.”

But who he should pick to run with him resonated less here. Mohler declined to say who he would like to see the former president pick. And other evangelicals — while namechecking Rubio most, followed by Scott — didn’t have an overwhelming favorite. Many couldn’t name more than even a few.

Several of those interviewed specifically pointed to Rubio’s youth — in addition to his conservative bona fides — as one of his assets. At 53, he is not the youngest candidate under consideration — Vance is 39. But they expressed concerns about the ability of Trump, who is 77, to complete a second term.

“I really like Rubio because I think he has the fortitude to carry on as president after Trump,” said Daryl Poe, who attends Mt. Carmel Baptist Church in Cincinnati, Ohio. “The young man from Ohio, J.D. Vance, seems to be more politically aligned with Trump than anyone else, but I don’t think he has enough time nationally to be that well known.”
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Evangelicals are also aware that Trump’s MAGA base is predominantly white, and some said he should pick a running mate like Scott or Rubio to appeal to voters of color.

“A diversity candidate would be great because Trump is for everybody. I feel like that’s a common misconception that he’s just for white people, but he’s for everybody,” said Bryan Gotcher, a pastor at Oakhill Baptist Church in Evansville, Indiana. “There’s a lot of ethnic people who are rallying to him, so that’s really encouraging.”

And then there’s the issue of abortion. On Tuesday, one attendee at the convention who is to Trump’s right on the issue spent 40 minutes over lunch sharing insights with pastors about how important it is to be a voice for evangelical causes in the public square. “I honestly think we haven’t come to the end of the debate over life: We’ve come to the end of the beginning,” the attendee said.

Heads nodded.

But asked by a reporter whether he had a favorite candidate or advice for whomever Trump would pick, the attendee, who drove here from his residence about 30 minutes away, didn’t have much to say.

The man, former Vice President Mike Pence, smiled at the question. And then he slipped out the exit.