I think you missed the point...

@phxbillcee Maybe I did. Please explain.

doesnt that end up being a basically circular argument though? A much more cogent one, seems to me, would be that people run mostly true to their nature—your mom knows what you will do iow-—but ppl can also change?

@bbyrd009 It's actually not circular at all. Please explain why you think it is.

@JeffMurray well, as you say, everything can be put down to “predestination?” Isnt it more likely that a less all-or-none approach more closely fits with reality?

@bbyrd009
A. Why would that make this circular?
B. An all-or-nothing approach is actually the only likely possibility. Think about what mechanics would need to be in play for you to sometimes have free will. If you could sometimes act or think freely, why couldn't you do so all the time. Conversely, if you couldn't act freely at times, what mystical powers change the laws of physics to transiently allow for it?
There is a concise video about this that I think would be valuable for you:
Watch "Determinism vs Free Will: Crash Course Philosophy #24" on YouTube

@JeffMurray ya, ive already been on that train, and tbh i still have no idea, and they don't either; its just an interesting theory, that might be valid. But i suspect that “mom’s” predestination is the most likely description; that we do have free will, but also that we rarely change your mind and tend to do the same thing over and over

@bbyrd009 Just because you aren't sure doesn't mean we aren't.

@bbyrd009 It's one of those things where once you come to the realization that we don't have free will, there's no going back. It's more absolute than abandoning a belief in god. I know a lot of people who don't believe in free will but I've never met a single person who realized we don't have it and then switched back to believing we do.

@JeffMurray well, that works both ways i guess, and you are free to believe you don't have any free will if you like. If you would like to test whether you have free will or not, I suggest you go get a hammer, and put your thumb down on a table…lol, and go from there!

and if you imagine that either choice is “predestined” somehow, then so be it

@bbyrd009 If you understood the mechanics of this, you'd realize how silly of an argument it was you just made.

@JeffMurray well, i understand, i think? Its just something we see differently, and after all what is wrong with that? Ppl who believe ezackly like me would be incredibly boring imo

@bbyrd009 I've mostly given up trying to explain this to people. Either you can get it, or you can't. (Did you bother watching that video?)
I was adamantly opposed to the notion I didn't have free will, and against my "will" I realized it anyway while researching it. That further solidified it for me. I actively didn't want to believe it and ended up believing it anyway.

@JeffMurray so in a sense you have gone from one extreme to the other, right? You don't see any possibility that both might be true, in context?

@bbyrd009 As I explained before, both being true makes the least sense. Just because you've thought two opposing things doesn't mean the middle ground is the most logical.
If someone used to think that skin color was the sole determinant of how intelligent a person would be and now they think skin color has no bearing on intelligence, would you say the most logical position is that skin color partially determines intelligence?
If you used to believe Santa brought all your presents, and now you realize Santa brings none of your presents, is it most logical to think Santa brings some of your presents?

I hope two examples is enough...

And I think "one extreme to the other" is a mischaracterization. I thought one thing, because literally everyone in the world thinks it because it really feels like we have free will. And then I realized I was wrong. There's nothing really "extreme" about either of those.