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The strong case for nuclear

In the US, there is a strong anti-nuclear stance that prevails over a slight majority of it's citizens. I'm going to try and convince you that not only is nuclear energy better than existing alternatives, but will be a necessary cornerstone in a post-fossil fuel era, as well as dispel many of the myths around it.

Nuclear is by far the safest form of power production in terms of deaths per terrawatt hour Including all the deaths from Chernobyl, and the atomic bombings of WWII fewer people have died when compared to the next runner up.
[ourworldindata.org]

Nuclear power does not release a large amount of radiation, but coal, the sun, and space do Due to a hole in the laws regarding the regulation of nuclear material, coal ash, which pound for pound is more radioactive than nuclear waste does not have to be controlled as radioactive material because it comes from "natural" sources.
[curiosity.com]
It is full of radioactive isotopes, neurotoxins, and greenhouse gasses which are released directly into the air when the coal is burned and has resulted in millions of deaths globally. Flying is also particularly dangerous if you have an adversity to radiation, due to the thinner atmosphere at high altitude.
[cdc.gov]

Modern nuclear power plants can not explode like an atom bomb There is a pervasive myth that any nuclear plant is essentially a bomb. This statement seems justified by the disaster at Chernobyl, the worst nuclear disaster in history. However, it is important to consider the design differences between this and modern plants. I can provide more details on this, however the TL;DR is that the Chernobyl plant was a boiling water reactor that gets hotter as it becomes more reactive and therefore hotter as it gets hotter leading to a chain reaction. Modern plants are usually presurized water reactors, which get colder as they get more reactive and vice versa, making them inherently stable ( if they start to get hotter they cool down, if they start to cool down they get hotter ). During the 3 mile island accident, the operators did basically everything wrong, there were multiple equipment failures, and this resulted in less radiation release than what you might get on a sunny day with no deaths.
[thebalance.com]
The Fukushima accident resulted from natural forces, and the design was insufficient to prevent further damage catalysing the disaster. This resulted in a hydrogen explosion from the hydrolysis of water on the zirconium cladding. There was only a single death from this accident, compared to the 11 deaths from deep water horizons oil explosion.

The sun isn't all ways shining and the wind isn't always blowing When we transition to a post fossil-fuel economy we have many challenges to consider when dealing with the infrastructure associated with green energy. One of the major benefits of fossil fuels is that the production of power can always be tailored to meet the demand, simply by managing fuel and turbine use. We use different amounts of power at different times of the day, however solar and wind only produce power at times outside of our control. This means that we need a base line power source that produces energy at a constant rate, and a means of storing excess power when it is being produced but not used.

Nuclear power is more than 55% of the US carbon free power, Nuclear Power is a critical piece of the puzzle for combating climate change, but if the public remains consistently against it, despite it's obvious merits then a transition to a post fossil-fuel economy will be slower and have a minimized long term effect. In fact, nuclear power plants are in some regards more environmentally friendly than solar and wind. Solar and wind farms take up a large land area, that can no longer be used for forests and fields that absorb CO2. Nuclear is the most energy dense form of power production in terms of land use.
[nei.org]

The fear instilled in the public about nuclear energy is completely unfounded and revolves around disinformation with misanthropic goals in mind. A rational analysis of nuclear power will yield strong support when compared to other available methods. Don't hesitate to ask me any questions about this topic, I would be more than happy to answer them.

Happy_Killbot 7 Oct 6
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Separate from the debate about whether nuclear power is safe or not, market forces will never support it. Market forces will always support the type of power generation that has the best return on investment. The power companies are not beholden to the government, politicians, society, the environment, or the moral high ground. They are beholden to their shareholders & no one else. The shareholders demand return on investment & for the foreseeable future, the best return on investment will be in renewables. In 2013, new solar & wind installations became more economical than new coal plants. In 2019, it became cheaper in many cases to build new solar & wind installations than to continue operation of older coal plants. Nuclear plants, in the best of scenarios, have a 40 to 50 year ROI, which isn't remotely close to competitive with anything else we have going. That is partly because of the sheer cost of construction & partly because of the insane amount of red tape that is never going to go away. Fission is dead. Give it up.

The costs are largely political. For example, France has invested heavily in nuclear and has one of the lowest operating costs per kilowatt hour. In the US, the cheapest option is geothermal, but it is location dependent. Solar and wind follow a similar pattern, with a highly varying operating cost depending on region. Either of those could potentially lose investors money, ( especially solar thermal ) and they have more reason to wait until the price of solar panels goes down.

In terms of ROI, natural gas is the most cost effective option in the US with an average LCOE of $73/MWh, and they don't have to be geographically located.
[eia.gov]

If the US had a carbon tax like other countries do, then that could change.

@Happy_Killbot - And like I said, the red tape, which contains the political cost, isn't going away. As long as people are divided on nuclear, which isn't going to change, politicians stand to lose reelection if they support actual nuclear projects. They can give it lip service, but if they actually move projects forward, they screw themselves. Fission is dead.

@davyjones And yet the US navy maintains 71 nuclear submarines, 9 more under construction, and 11 nuclear aircraft carriers. If any politician says anything against the military, they will be kicked out almost as fast as if they criticize Israel. What's really keeping them in office is the ignorance of the people.

@Happy_Killbot - So what's your point? I'm not saying that current policy is or isn't right. I'm just saying it is what it is. Step one on fixing things is getting the profiteering out of politics, & step one is fixing the education system. Neither is likely in my lifetime, & neither can happen without the other. I can only deal with reality as it is, rather than what I might like it to be. Under current policy, it is unlikely we'll ever get a new fission plant built for public utilities, so why dwell on it? Rather than waste any effort on what is effectively a dead technology, maybe put more effort into supporting & educating people on technologies that are actually being built, are actually cost effective in this reality, and can actually end the use of fossil fuels.

@davyjones If you make everything a priority, nothing is. Policy can change, and that starts with education and spread of information. Once fossil fuels are no longer commercially viable, we effectively are left with 4 options, with nuclear being the most powerful and reliable, no contest. I far as I know, nuclear is the ONLY carbon neutral option that can effectively meet our power needs without obliterating the environment. Personal, I consider this countries irrational fear of nuclear to be on par with our proclivity to believe in flat earth, anti-vax, and 911 conspiracy.

@Happy_Killbot - Unlike fission, solar & wind are commercially viable & can easily meet our power needs without obliterating the environment. They are already more cost effective than coal. They are so much more cost effective than fission as to make the comparison absolutely laughable. They will be cost competitive with natural gas in North America within a decade & are already cheaper in most of the rest of the world. Renewables are getting cheaper every year & will continue to do so for at least a century, which can't be said for any non-renewable power source, including fission.

Regarding reliability, when is the last time the sun failed to rise on schedule? When is the last time the earth stopped rotating? Solar & wind power are as reliable as that.

How much space do solar panels actually need? Check the link (you can skip to 3:10 if you want), & keep in mind, the technology has progressed quite a bit in the 4 years since the video went live.

@davyjones It's more complicated than that, The map makes it look deceptively small but that is still a huge land area we have to clear, and that still assumes best case scenario. Elon Musk is just trying to sell you something and probably influence government policy. At night, solar doesn't work. At peak energy use times, solar doesn't work. If you live in Alaska, that surface area isn't going to cut it and probably doesn't factor in increased maintenance costs due to rain and snow. If your solar panels are covered in snow, they won't work. Electrical power has a relatively short range due to resistance losses, which means power is best consumed close to where it is produced, and when it is produced. Keep in mind I'm not saying that solar and wind is wrong or bad, I'm just saying nuclear is a key ingredient to reduce long term costs and short term reliability.

Just to show the assumptions they are making, I will use the solar effectiveness map from this link to calculate land area from New york, and LA
[downstreamconstruction.com]
New York: 4.5 Kwh/m2
LA: 6.5 Kwh/m2
US electricity use: 4.18 trillion Kwh

land use at New York rate: 9.28910^11 m2 = 35864 mi2
land use at LA rate: 6.430
10^11 m2 = 24829 mi2

for comparison, the state of Indiana is 35,870 mi2 and West Virginia is 24,087 mi2

if we used 1000 Mw nuclear reactor operating at 90% load 24/7 each taking up only one square mile, meaning you only need 530 mi2.

@Happy_Killbot - It is more complicated, I agree. Industrial batteries can buffer peak times & night time. Battery types could include any combination of Lithium Ion, Lead Acid, Geothermal Battery, Molten Sodium, & Gravity type, just to list a few types that are readily available now. This doesn't even get into future battery tech that's coming. Wind power is also reliable & predictable in certain regions. A wind generator's wind speed sweet spot is anywhere from 4 to 12 mph, so a gentle breeze is all those need. Alaska has plenty of wind as well as a ton of tidal energy they can tap into. There are plenty of viable ways to generate clean power, so we don't need to rely on any one of them. Fission just happens to be the most expensive one by a mile. Why push outdated, overpriced, politically suicidal tech when we have far better solutions available now? All of the big energy companies already see the writing on the wall. Where are their investment dollars going? It's not fission. The reality is there isn't a single strong argument in favor of fission left.

Here are 3 recent examples in reality of where things are shifting.

[seattletimes.com]

[utilitydive.com]

[mprnews.org]

@davyjones I already debunked the expensive nuclear myth, solar thermal is the most expensive. It's expensive to build, but cheap to operate. [realclearenergy.org]

Comparing coal to nuclear is a false analogy, nuclear was better than coal in the 70's.

Ignoring the nuclear option is a fools game, because the competition isn't between nuclear and renewable, it's between nuclear and natural gas. If we don't maintain nuclear, then natural gas will have to pick up the slack, effectively eliminating any and all environmental benefits.

[grist.org]

@Happy_Killbot - Well, the reality is fission will never be viable from a regulatory standpoint alone. The politicians won't touch it. The regulators are appointed by the politicians. The public at large won't touch it. The corporations won't touch it. The investors won't touch it. Coal will gradually continue to increase in cost, along with natural gas & oil. We have massive supplies of all three though, so any supply shortages will be artificially fabricated. Renewables will continue to decrease in cost drastically over the long term, as well as storage technologies. Fission is irrelevant. That's the reality. Be blindly optimistic in one hand & shit in the other...

0

Nuclear is a technology that is soon-to-be outdated and will be going away, fusion will take over that role.

It is often joked that fusion power is 20 years away and always will be. At any rate, waiting to jump straight from fossil fuels to fusion isn't a good plan, so switching to nuclear now is probably still a better option.

[theguardian.com]

@Archeus_Lore From that article: "Prof Wilson was also cautious about the timeframe, saying that while the project was exciting he couldn’t see how it would achieve its goal of putting energy on the grid within 15 years."

Although I would not be sad if it did become a reality, I would remain highly skeptical of such a short transformation.

You are welcome to be sceptical. I in turn am sceptical of nuclear power plants and their safety. I have actually worked in several, and, even though their safety rules are very strict, Murphy's law has a way of getting around that, and all it takes is one accident to have a fucking disaster like Fukishima.

@Archeus_Lore If you have worked in a nuclear power plant you may have heard of "Switch theory" that proposes that any catastrophe is never the result of a single point cause, but rather a series of missteps that could have been avoided the closer you get to t = 0.

For Fukushima, I would make a chain like this: Reactor is designed -> lead engineers resignation after safety concerns is ignored -> Reactors are constructed with bad information about fault lines -> fault line information is updated, reactors continue to operate without upgrades -> plants not shut down promptly and prepared for decay heat removal on increased siesmic activity -> tsunami hits -> decay heat removal is not established prior to batteries dying due to flooded diesel -> meltdown in cores, hydrogen explosion and fission product release.

You remove any of those steps or correct any of those deficiencies, there would be no accident.

I would never agree with such a narrow interpretation of Murphy's Law.

1

As someone once said "If the first public demonstration of the automobile had killed 100,000 people, we'd still be riding horses." It is sad, nuclear is our last best hope for staving off AGW, but I don't think it will be embraced in time. The nonsense people are sharing about Fukushima is maddening.

0

You have convinced me. However, I still believe that a revolutionary new source of energy is just around the corner in the form of LENR, which used to be called Cold Fusion. If we had jumped on the new technology back in ‘89 with funding for scientific studies I think LENR would be in use today.

Just my opinion.

If any type of fusion power becomes a commercially viable option, cold or otherwise, that would change everything and fossil fuels, nuclear, and even green technologies could just be thrown out the window. I will however, remain skeptical of some actors claiming cold fusion because the results of the cold fusion experiments have never been reproduced, and it's history is thus far mangled with what seems to be malicious actors.

2

It can work if done right

2

I agree and believe the fear is largely unfounded and based on outdated ideas and fears of past catastrophic accidents. With proper modern safety procedures in place it makes more sense both in economic terms and environmental ones than to still use fossil fuels. A co-ordinated fuel industry which uses nuclear supplemented by green energy by harnessing wind, hydro, and sun would seem to be the best way forward to cleaner reliable energy for the future.

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