The Australian National Grid Manager Admits Blackouts Are Coming

Joanne Nova wrote an article explaining and critiquing a new report published by Australia’s national grid manager (AEMO) about the 10-year reliability outlook of the nation’s electricity market. Nova wrote “They euphemistically refer to the coming “reliability gaps”. They could have said “blackouts” instead, but a gap in reliability sounds so much nicer.” The lead graph (figure 1) of the report titled “Expected unserved energy” shows unserved energy percentages going off scale for the provinces New South Wales and Victoria by 2027. Off scale is twice the amount of blackout that could be considered acceptable by the reliability standard. AEMO is now calling for tenders for “reliability reserves” which includes offers of industries to shut down when electrical power is lacking and asking for “small onsite generators”. Queensland and South Australia blackouts goes off the chart in 2030 and this is only the “central scenario”. AEMO is forecasting contributions from “consumer energy resources” which means consumers provide electricity to the grid from their home batteries and electric vehicles. The forecast relies on Demand Side Participation (DSP) which means customers who are paid to not use electricity. Perhaps they go on vacation to another country. An increase of DSP is driven by the increasing cost of electricity. Nova wrote “Only the wealthy will have the convenience of electricity whenever they want it. The underclass will be cooking on barbeques, and getting up earlier each day to program the washing machine and set up the timers for the scooters.”