Apologists masquerading as analysts from the polling community state that the national polls in 2016 were basically accurate, and that smaller state polls were less well funded and unreliable, and this how things went so wrong. They also divorce themselves from the predictions we heard so often before election day thusly:
..."polls and forecasting models are not one and the same. As the late pollster Andrew Kohut once noted, “I’m not a handicapper, I’m a measurer. There’s a difference.” Pollsters and astute poll reporters are often careful to describe their findings as a snapshot in time, measuring public opinion when they are fielded ... Forecasting models do something different – they attempt to predict a future even."
(https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx
Do you buy this? Or as your opinion of polling reliability been adversely affected?
Polls are people saying they have an opinion or that they are going to do do something.
In the case of 2016, people said they were going to vote a certain way but did they actually go out and do it.. obviously not!
Personally I don’t think polls mean a lot to the individual. I don’t really care how others are voting as it applies to my decision on who to support.
I think polls are used by politicians for both nefarious and honest reasons. They may use them to see where to concentrate their efforts. Where is a lost cause to move on from. What messages and rhetoric resonates with the voters in a particular area.
I do believe they also use them to manipulate voters. Show a candidate way ahead and voters may stay home. Thinking the the person has it in the bag and they don’t need to bother. Or perhaps show yourself polling just behind your opponent and people may be more motivated to turn out. It’s all in the spin. And relies on a truthful and diverse pool.
I’m not sure how they can say the 2016 polls were inaccurate by using some sort of “fancy speechifying” to pretend like we just didn’t know the difference between a pollster and a forecaster. This is a lame attempt to shirk responsibility for getting things so terribly wrong.
If anything 2016 should have taught the Congress critters and candidates on both sides of the aisle that they have grossly misinterpreted the people they are supposed to be respresenting. That the disconnect is so wide people left behind any sort of past practices and reasoning to simply elect someone, anyone who wasn’t the status quo. I was one of those people. I felt like i was basically held hostage by a system that forces me, election after election to vote for the lesser of two bad choices. And now we are reaping the consequences of that. Regardless of the polls.