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I keep wondering if we are bound for a future in which some nations of the world simply are awash in the highly-communicable virus, and no longer fight it except amongst some individuals, and some nations fight it, keep it at bay, continue some levels of caution, but generally are able to go about their business but without the death and disability. Perhaps there will be some nations caught in a middle ground for some time.

If it does play out like this, or in some ways like this, then, from a geo-political point of view, what are the consequences? Will all travel of people between the two types of nations cease? Will trade in goods be reduced or eliminated or continue? Will there be tensions based on these or other matters?

kmaz 7 June 28
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The only reason for protective measures was to slow the spread so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed, and to give time for a vaccine to be developed. At some point everyone in the world will have been exposed. The virus will have played out because of natural immunity or vaccines and the most vulnerable will have died. The epidemic will be over.

I think you have summarized a take on the virus that the President appears to have assumed (and imposed on the country) from the start. Yet, some nations have slowed the spread to zero, or near-zero. So, his assumptions were either simply incorrect, or questionable as a matter of degree to such an extent that it can be said he has already cost dozens of thousands of lives just in the US.

@kmaz Whether some nations have slowed the spread to zero is entirely beside the point. What about in two or three years? There will be fresh fuel in those nations and the wildfire will break out again unless a vaccine is developed.

Meanwhile, places that let nature run its course will have already been burned over. Those left alive will have immunity.

The death toll in the US is currently 39 per 100,000, which is a meager four one hundredths of one percent, and most of those were near the end of their lives anyway. In comparison, in the US 52/100,000 die from unintentional injuries annually. Why aren’t we crying bloody murder over that and playing the blame game?

No. Simply wrong on several counts. There's no guarantee there will ever be a vaccine. The reason to close the economy was to keep health care systems from being overwhelmed and set up robust test, trace and contact systems. As numerous countries did, and now have Covid-19 shut down and under control. The failed states unable to do this (which sadly includes the US) are not going to be welcome members of the international community until they do. It's the fourth worst mass death event in US history, and it's not slowing down. Minimizing it or pretending it will go away is wishful thinking, which sadly is how we got into this mess to begin with.

@Druvius In terms of deaths per million, the US is nowhere near the top. As many as eight European countries have higher rates. All nations are relaxing shutdown measures. It’s not because the virus is under control. The virus can resurge at any time and place where there are people without immunity.

It is simply not feasible to keep the economy shut down for extended periods. Such a step would create more damage than it would prevent.

It seems to be standard practice to exaggerate the effects of the epidemic in order to stir up fear and make political hay.

@Druvius

Thanks for trying to offer some reasonable points. I doubt they will have much impact on WilliamFleming's thinking, but thanks anyway.

A few additional points from me:

It is possible that in the end this disease is simply too communicable and can't be contained, but so far it looks like it can be if extreme measures are taken (i.e.: a fully locked-up country which follows a variety of measures as a team can in theory stop it). I"m not sure we will be so fortunate with all diseases in the future, but this does not mean one gives up on addressing the issue at hand.

It's hard to know, really, what the mortality is from this thing because if more people have been exposed then we realize, then that means it is actually less deadly. Still, if we follow William's advocated global policy to its logical point of view and pencil in a conservative number of one half of one percent of global population dying, (and others being injured) then that would mean 40m people dead. If we postulate something like 3% of global population, then that would mean about 240m people dead.

So, thank goodness the US does not determine virus policy for other countries, and some of them seem to be smart about the thing, (whereas others do not).

President Trump and others seem to spend some time pretending and posturing that they are the ones concerned about the economy, but if they were, they would pay more attention to those countries which have done a much better job on the virus, study what they did, and make some effort to learn from it. It seems possible that those countries are going to emerge with better economic health than the US.

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I've wondered the same thing, does look like we are headed for two worlds in the forseeable future. Nations that have Covid-19 shut down, and nations where it's still circulating. Certainly a huge incentive for the former to limit their relations with the latter. The impacts on the world geo-political system could be gigantic.

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