We simply don’t know enough about this virus. But we are learning every day
Evidence mounts that covid19 immunity is short term, at least for some people. In other words, we may need to wear masks, social distance, and wash hands frequently for the rest of our lives. Additional evidence suggests the virus is contained in extremely small water droplets that can linger in the air for many minutes and travel to all corners of indoor spaces, which suggests HEPA filters and goggles over our eyes will also help minimize the infection rate.
There are many things about covid 19 immunity we do not know, but I shall now assume herd immunity will not occur and that vaccination will only keep us safe for a few weeks. I hope future research demonstrates these assumptions are incorrect.
Better safe than sorry.
"The times, they are a changin'. - Bob Dylan
At this moment, I consider schools opening this fall in the US to be deadly. There are more than 50 million school aged children. The covid infection rate with distancing and masks is about 1%, which may mean 500,000 infected children in a month with 1% death rate (5000 dead children). Those infected children would take their infection home, where masks and distancing do not occur, the infection rate unmasked is about 70%, and family members would be infected. That is at least ten times more deaths than school shootings, e.g., Columbine. Moreover, it would repeat until schools shut down.
I hope I've overestimated infections and deaths, but my fear is worse.
You beat me to it, but I agree, evidence is showing more and more that any conferred immunity from previous infection is short lived if providing any protection at all. I think it is terribly unwise to count on any long term immunity from anything less than a vaccine. The high mutation rate of viruses makes even vaccine acquired immunity a challenge. Natural long term immunity from a virus that mutates is pretty non existent.
@EdEarl You're welcome. I also have about 10 years experience working in a microbiology lab and a long term fascination with newly emerging infectious diseases. I currently work in the operating room, and you make a good point about the droplets in your first paragraph. There were entire OR teams that became infected after laparoscopic surgeries as well as surgeries involving the respiratory tract. This prompted changes in protocol to include goggles or eye protection for all staff in the room (previously only used by the surgeon and assistants that were scrubbed into the surgical field, even normal eyeglasses were acceptable, and did not include circulating nurses, anesthesiologists, radiology, etc). Times are definitely a changin', fast.