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Garret's Thermodynamics of Civilization vs McPherson's Near Term Human Extinction

I was shocked by McPherson's claim that he, "would be surprised if any human was still alive in ten years," and Garret shares my skepticism, but his (Garret's) paper scares me more than any collapsarian paranoia ever did. Considering the steamboat problem, can we stop the anthropocenic mass extinction, become a carbon negative civilization (and get off fossil fuels and petroleum products like plastics entirely), and control both population and resource extraction (before we run out of water, sand, rare earth metals, trees, wildlife, marine fish stock, etc.) before we create an out of control climate feedback loop edging us closer to a tropical Earth, or are we doomed? Most importantly, can we stop the exponential growth economy reenacting the steamboat problem, or will we simply increase the overall climate change by prolonging the human enterprise, even with significant policy changes?

I'd love to hear your opinions.

Greymattersuit 4 Apr 12
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9 comments

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0

I think we are doomed to survive global climate change. It will be brutal but we breed like rats and are very adaptable.

1

I believe McPherson.... we are doomed....greymattersuit

0

Things will get to the point where every couple will be allowed to have two kids tops worldwide. That way population growth will stabilize and world resources could be wisely consumed and replenish...... Either that or pass the critical point of no return and then spiral down from there.

1

I am glad I am old

0

We’re fucked.

We’re incapable of escaping the treadmill we’ve created.

2

Human kind dead within the next ten years seems a little quick but not far off. At least another 50 years left, assuming no extinction level event such as Yellowstone volcanic eruption, solar flare et al...
Are we doomed? Yes. Historically, every civilization so far has advanced to peak of excess then crumbled. The cause is self indulgence. Anyone with basic knowledge of human solciology and pyschology will affirm, human behavior is very difficult to change.
Consider, over half the human population believe in some form of religious based ideology that "the end is at hand, so repent". Not likely much motivation to change behavior to environmental friendly there. They already scream murder with abortion, so I don't think they will flood to voluntarily sterilization, genetic manipulation, and societal culling of the sick/disabled that will be needed in the immediate future. At that time, retirement age of 65 will take on a new meaning.
To late to change overpopulation effects on the environment with moral and ethical interventions. Eugenics could have had a practical use in population control if morals and ethics would have been sat aside in the early 1900's.
Then, we have the other large part of society the "wishy-washy" I call them, who does nothing but ignore problems as long as they have theirs. The ones ever buying the new version of Iphone, off road truck, bass boat, designer suit, $250,000 house, on and on. These people have no understanding of practicality, awareness or want or desire to decrease their carbon footprint. Sadly, this group includes a percentage of free thinkers, tech, and scientists who could make a difference if willing to make the difficult sacrificing needed now. The drastic sacrifices are needed right now just to slow the environmental decline. Sacrifices that give time to plan, create successful interventions, implement and reevaluate. Now is the time to "kick ass and take names" fighting climate change and the majority of society doesn't have the balls to do what's needed. The exponential changes in our environment related to the short interval of time the industrial revolution has evolved to an extinction event is obvious to me.

I believe Prof. McPherson deeply. You got 10 years, period. Live well...

1

Man has been around for millions of years, I doubt we're going away any time soon.

gater Level 7 Apr 12, 2018
3

Before I started this website, I was supporting some orgs that address climate change and overpopulation. I finally realized that religion was a key contributor to both problems so here we are. Good books: The Long Descent (Greer), The Five States of Collapse (Orlov), and The End of Growth (Heinberg).

Admin Level 9 Apr 12, 2018

@Greymattersuit there's no animal on the planet who will collectively undergo short term pain for long term gain. Who wants to give up A/C and cars?

2

Yes, we can stop the carbon-based fossil fuels expansion -- if we have the political will to do so. An equally important, if not more important question is whether we have the will to stop the mushrooming rowth in human population. It is that population sexplsion that is fueling the destruction of our environment. The two cannot be intelligently separated!

@Greymattersuit Government action, by itself, will never be enough. The entire culture has to change, as it has in most of Europe. Most of Europe has low birth rates -- because the people, themselves. have decided the lower birth rates are in their own interest.

@wordywalt most of Europe has low birthrates because their women are well educated.

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