Bottom up revolution in Russia in 2022?
Given the conditions:
- Demonstrated poor performance of the military. (Discipline, logistics, morale, casualties)
- Economic strife among the general population that will compound in the near term.
- Western media influence becoming more accessible to the general population.
- Stubborn resistance of the Ukrainians, and near global support for their efforts growing daily.
Opinion:
This sounds like a recipe for a bottom-up revolution, which would be the most costly in human suffering, but likely the most healthy for the Russian people in the long term. Given the trajectory of events over the past 3 weeks I consider it completely possible that by early summer we could witness:
- A violent full scale bottom-up revolution.
- A civilian and military general strike resulting in a less violent revolutionary event.
- A total withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
- Exile of Putin to China or other totalitarian sympathizer.
I seriously doubt the likelihood of any nuclear exchange given the trajectory of events so far.
Your thoughts please on my conjecture of another Russian revolution in 2022?
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It's a lovely thought, Garban and I'd like to think you're right! I'm afraid Putin has supporters in the military/Kremlin leadership who would try to grab that power for themselves.
LucyLoohoo
Level 9
Mar 17, 2022
1
@Garban True, of course. But...he didn't have the KGB, did he? (Sorry to say.)
I'm not sure the Russian people have it in them, I would like to see them able to vote freely. Thing is China is the bigger threat but there is a new wave of COVID making the rounds in China and lock downs will effect supply chains.
Here's an interesting article from 2020 on Russian history.
[daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu]
silverotter11
Level 9
Mar 17, 2022
2
Russian Revolution in 2022!? No Way!
Don't forget Russia's economy is oil/gas-based and they don't care about citizens, the lack of democracy makes suppressing even easier. on the other hand, Russia with china's support will continue easily for decades, look at North Korea! the point is China knows it's the real threat for the west, not a poor country like Russia, and will do all to keep it in the front line.
Diaco
Level 7
Mar 17, 2022
1
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