I think a very strong effort is going to be made in favor of One China policy. Taiwan might achieve Honk Kong status as another gateway to Western business but having to honor that agreement will be much more costly. So I'm hoping a solution can be found (in very private circles) before China loses patience.

On a related topic let me suggest a third idea: That those private circles (including Putin) understand that Russia was an increasingly doomed State but holds a bunch of nukes (some being shiny knew). So it might be good to bring the world back into a Cold War between two parties. So that those nukes don't fall into Christian Taliban bad hands it was determined that Putin had to fall on a sword so that his nation is absorbed as a spoil of war. Zolenskyy would then join EU and the continent will be a united Europe, and UK, against China (which has much more potential).

I don't know but I am cynical about how much of this illusion is random.