The basic gist of the story is this: A shadowy ex-FBI informant with ties to Russia has been arrested and charged with giving false information to the FBI, but not before the alleged lies were used by Republicans to publicly accuse President Joe Biden of bribery.

When you look at the facts now, it seems ridiculous and incredible – a single, unverified FBI interview blows up into public allegations against the president of the United States and fuels plans for his impeachment.

But it has taken months of incremental developments to arrive at this point, and there are many unanswered questions in the developing saga of Alexander Smirnov, the accused peddler of misinformation. Smirnov has been charged with lying to the FBI and creating false records, but he has not yet entered a plea. His lawyers say he’s “presumed innocent” and will rigorously fight the charges.

Here’s what we actually do know at this point:

Who is Alexander Smirnov?

Smirnov is a 43-year-old dual American-Israeli citizen who moved from Los Angeles to Las Vegas two years ago. A “confidential human source” for the FBI, he provided an FBI agent, his “handler,” information that had been used in multiple investigations dating back to 2010, according to a federal indictment.

Very little is known publicly about Smirnov. CNN has not obtained a photograph of him, for instance, and he shielded himself by covering his face when leaving court Tuesday, although he does appear to have quite a bit of money. Prosecutors, in asking unsuccessfully for Smirnov to be kept behind bars while he awaits trial, said he has access to more than $6 million in bank accounts and claims to have contacts with multiple foreign agencies. Plus, they said he was planning a monthslong trip out of the US when he was arrested.

A judge rejected those arguments. Smirnov was released from custody Tuesday but is required to wear a GPS monitoring device and had to surrender his two passports, among other conditions.
What did he tell the FBI about the Bidens?

There were, according to the indictment, multiple stories.

First, in 2017, Smirnov told the FBI he had been in contact with executives at Burisma, the Ukrainian oil and natural gas company that paid Joe Biden’s son Hunter to be on its board, including while his father was vice president and oversaw US policy toward Ukraine.

Smirnov told his handler that Burisma was interested in buying a US-based oil company. Hunter Biden was briefly mentioned, but no allegation about either Biden was made by Smirnov. The handler documented all of this in what the FBI calls an FD-1023.

Years later, when Joe Biden was running for president, Smirnov added a bribery allegation.

In May 2020, Smirnov texted his handler multiple times about the presidential election, showing a bias against Biden, according to prosecutors. He did not make any specific allegations, but alluded to a bribe he said he would try to prove occurred.
How did the story change?

By June 2020, there was an investigation led by the now-former, Donald Trump-appointed US attorney in Pittsburgh, Scott Brady, into any allegations involving the Bidens and Ukraine, including dubious claims being pushed by then-Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani. Smirnov’s handler, at Brady’s request, reached out to Smirnov to follow up on his innocuous mention of Hunter Biden years before.

According to the indictment, in a phone conversation in June 2020, after Joe Biden had secured the Democratic presidential nomination, Smirnov described for the first time meetings and phone calls he claimed occurred in 2015 and/or 2016 in which, he alleged, Burisma executives discussed paying $5 million bribes each to both Bidens for protection through Joe Biden’s position as vice president.

Smirnov said the alleged bribe was intended to help shut down a supposed Ukrainian criminal probe into Burisma, prosecutors said. As vice president, Joe Biden, along with multiple Western officials, had encouraged Ukraine to oust then-Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin. There’s no evidence Shokin was actively investigating Burisma at the time. Biden and US allies wanted Shokin fired for being too soft on corruption – his ouster in 2016 actually would’ve increased, not decreased, potential scrutiny of Burisma.

Smirnov’s new, explosive but questionable allegations resulted in a second FD-1023.
Did the FBI ever follow up?

Efforts to confirm the allegations continued over the next few months, and Brady’s FBI partners in Pittsburgh concluded in August 2020 that the matter should be closed. Senior FBI and Justice Department officials in Washington, DC, concurred.

The information was ultimately passed on to the Trump-appointed US attorney for Delaware, David Weiss, who was overseeing investigations related to Hunter Biden. Brady told Congress last year that he had believed there was a “sufficient indicia of credibility” into aspects of the 1023 – enough to pass it along to Weiss and to brief Weiss about the document.

Years later, in August 2023, Weiss was elevated by Attorney General Merrick Garland to become a special counsel for his multifaceted investigation into Hunter Biden.

That happened shortly after a plea deal between Weiss and Hunter Biden fell apart, and as Republicans pushed unproven conspiracy theories related to the 2020 FD-1023. Smirnov was officially interviewed again by the FBI in September about his Biden-related bribery allegations. He repeated the general allegations from his 2020 phone conversation, but with multiple inconsistencies, according to the indictment.

During that formal interview, prosecutors now say, Smirnov also added details he said he learned from Russian intelligence officials, including that Hunter Biden stayed at a particular hotel in Ukraine and there are tapes of him there.
Why do prosecutors say Smirnov’s new story is false?

For starters, Smirnov alleges the bribes were discussed at meetings with Burisma officials in 2015 or 2016, but according to the indictment there is no evidence he even met with Burisma executives until 2017, after Joe Biden was no longer vice president.

Plus, people said by Smirnov to be at pertinent meetings with Burisma officials outside of Ukraine did not leave the country between 2011 and 2017, according to the indictment.

“The evidence at trial will show Smirnov’s story to the FBI was a fabrication, an amalgam of otherwise unremarkable business meetings and contacts that had actually occurred but at a later date than he claimed,” according to the indictment.

Similarly, the indictment alleges that phone conversations in which Smirnov says Burisma executives discussed payments to Biden never happened. And the tidbits that Smirnov said he got from Russian intelligence officials about Hunter Biden being recorded at a Kyiv hotel? The indictment argues Hunter Biden has never traveled to Ukraine.
If the FBI didn’t believe Smirnov, how did his allegations make it to Congress and the public?

Republicans on Capitol Hill have made investigating both Bidens a top priority dating back to the Trump-Ukraine impeachment in 2019. Last year, they pushed for months for the document with Smirnov’s allegations to be released even though the FBI considered it to have been debunked.

House Oversight Committee Chairman Rep. James Comer had threatened to hold FBI Director Christopher Wray in contempt of Congress if the document was not released to lawmakers. Ultimately, Wray allowed members of Congress to privately view the document, but not keep it.

After the document was obtained by lawmakers from someone who sought protection under a law to protect whistleblowers, Sen. Chuck Grassley, the Iowa Republican, released it to the public and argued it could be evidence of a cover-up. It’s not publicly known who gave the document to Grassley.

How did Smirnov’s allegations affect the Biden impeachment effort?

Comer has embraced the unverified bribery allegation since, he said, it tracked with his broader investigation into the Biden family’s overseas business dealings.

Republicans tried to place the bribery allegations within the larger universe of Hunter Biden’s business career, in which he admittedly traded on his father’s name and made millions of dollars from companies in China and elsewhere. Despite pursuing criminal charges against Hunter Biden for his gun ownership and tax evasions, prosecutors have not alleged wrongdoing with regard to Burisma.

After releasing the FD-1023, Republicans argued it could be evidence of a cover-up.

“While the FBI sought to obfuscate and redact, the American people can now read this document for themselves, without the filter of politicians or bureaucrats, thanks to brave and heroic whistleblowers,” Grassley proudly proclaimed in July.

The unverified allegations became an article of faith in GOP efforts to undercut Biden’s credibility.

“Every day this bribery scandal becomes more credible,” Comer said on Fox News last July, seizing on Smirnov’s allegations.
Have Republicans pulled back any of their allegations?

Grassley’s decision to publicly release the unverified allegations that Weiss, a Republican-appointed US attorney, now says were lies has not aged well. Grassley has made no official comment on the recent developments.

Comer recently told Spectrum News that the impeachment effort against Biden may not ultimately occur.

But Republicans argue in talking points obtained by CNN that they have evidence beyond the FD-1023 that shows Biden was involved in the business dealings of his son and other family members.

In a statement after the Smirnov indictment was unsealed, Comer said, “the impeachment inquiry is not reliant on the FBI’s FD-1023. It is based on a large record of evidence, including bank records and witness testimony, revealing that Joe Biden knew of and participated in his family’s business dealings.”

Even though Republicans are maintaining that the charges against Smirnov have no impact on their work, they removed a reference to the informant from a letter sent to an unrelated witness requesting an interview, copies of the letters obtained by CNN show.

Republicans are also asking the FBI why they ever relied on the now-discredited informant in the first place. Comer says the FBI told him last year that Smirnov was “credible and trusted” and had been “paid six figures” for his information.

The Oversight Committee website still, as of this writing, includes mention of the debunked form FD-1023.
Where did the Smirnov information originate?

The origin of the debunked bribery story is unclear. But it’s notable that Smirnov says he has ties to Russian officials and even admits they gave him information about Hunter Biden – information that the Justice Department says is false.

Given how Smirnov’s story has changed over time, according to the indictment, it’s hard to know exactly what to believe.

There is, however, a confirmed track record of Russians spreading disinformation about the Bidens in Ukraine. It’s the same storyline that then-President Trump seized on when he dispatched Giuliani to build a case against Joe Biden before the 2020 election.

The anti-Biden messages Smirnov allegedly sent to his handler in 2020 included references to a former Ukrainian lawmaker, Andriy Derkach, who worked with Giuliani in 2020. Derkach and his allies were labeled later that year by the US government as agents of the Russian government and sanctioned for trying to meddle in the 2020 election to hurt Joe Biden’s chances.

The disinformation continues.

“(Smirnov) is actively peddling new lies that could impact U.S. elections after meeting with Russian intelligence officials in November,” prosecutors said in court documents.
What role does Weiss play in all of this?

After Hunter Biden’s plea deal collapsed last summer, Weiss was given the title of special counsel to give him independence from the Department of Justice, which is run by Biden appointees. He is the person currently prosecuting Hunter Biden in Delaware for illegally owning a gun while he was addicted to drugs and in California for tax evasion. Hunter Biden has pleaded not guilty in both cases.

Weiss is now also using his special counsel powers to prosecute Smirnov for lying to the FBI and making up the bribery story about the Bidens.

Ironically, Republicans cheered on his prosecution against Hunter Biden, but it’s now the Democrats who are trumpeting his case against Smirnov.

This story has been updated with additional information.
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