By Julia Manchester - 05/31/24

Former President Trump’s guilty verdict in his New York City hush money trial is throwing the presidential election into uncertain territory as Republicans and Democrats grapple with how to move forward in the wake of the historic development.

Reactions to the verdict from both sides of the aisle poured in Thursday, with Trump immediately fundraising off the announcement, while the Biden campaign proclaimed the trial’s outcome proves “no one is above the law.” The Trump campaign’s donation page even briefly crashed in the moments after the decision was handed down.

But with sentencing taking place just four days before the Republican National Convention, both campaigns will be forced to confront a scenario that no other U.S. presidential campaign has ever faced before.

“[President Biden] is running against a convicted felon,” said Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist. “I don’t know if we’ve ever swam in this water as a country.”

Trump on Thursday became the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime when he was found guilty on all 34 charges in a case involving hush money payments made to porn actor Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election. It was one of four cases Trump is grappling with heading into the fall, but likely the only one in which a decision will be reached before November.

Trump’s allies immediately lashed out at the verdict, likening it to “imprisoning political opponents.”

“We are living in a banana republic,” said Dan Eberhart, a Trump donor. “Welcome to the United States of Burma.”

A number of other Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), predicted Trump would appeal the decision and win. And many suggested it would have a minimal impact — or even aid — Trump in November.

“This will be overturned on appeal, and the real verdict is going to come from the people on Nov. 5,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist.

The Trump campaign is already looking to seize on Republican anger over the verdict in order to close the financial gap between the former president and Biden. Minutes after the verdict was read, Trump posted a link to donate campaign funds on Truth Social with the caption “I am a political prisoner!”

Another GOP strategist predicted Trump’s guilty verdict could end up having a similar effect on Republicans in November that the overturning of Roe v. Wade had for Democrats during the 2022 midterm elections.

“People tend to be motivated to vote in opposition to something,” said Justin Sayfie, a GOP strategist. “When you get a victory like the conservatives had a victory when Roe was overturned, you kind of feel a little complacent.”

“I think the same thing is happening now with this legal verdict, which is Democrats got what they wanted,” Sayfie continued. “Republicans are rip-roaring upset, and they’re going to express those emotions at the polls in the same way that supporters of reproductive rights expressed their emotions about the overturning of Roe v. Wade at the polls.”

But the reality is nobody knows exactly what Thursday’s decision means for the race. Polling has been a mixed bag when it comes to painting how voters could be swayed by the verdict. Some surveys have suggested there is a small portion of the electorate that would be less likely to vote for Trump in the wake of a conviction.

But other polls show little movement in the case of a conviction. A Marist poll released early Thursday morning found that 67 percent of voters said a conviction would not make a difference for them in November, while 76 percent of voters said they would not vote any differently if Trump was found not guilty.

“Inflation and the cost of everything is going to be the No. 1 issue, particularly in the six swing states,” O’Connell said. “What this means is that this was always going to be a close election. Now it just means that the Republicans are going to have to double down on their ballot turnout effort in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.”

While Republicans slammed the verdict Thursday, Democrats wasted no time seizing it as an opportunity to attack Trump.

“Donald Trump is a racist, a homophobe, a grifter, and a threat to this country. He can now add one more title to his list — a felon. But let me be clear, Donald Trump will never be 47,” Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said in a scathing statement.

Progressive Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) released a statement saying “accountability is welcome and long overdue.”

“This man is undoubtedly unfit to serve in public office. The threat he poses to our nation and our democracy cannot be overstated,” Pressley said.

The Biden campaign seized on the verdict as just the latest example of how reelecting Trump would mean “chaos.”

“A second Trump term means chaos, ripping away Americans’ freedoms and fomenting political violence – and the American people will reject it this November,” said Michael Tyler, the campaign’s communications director.

But even many Democrats acknowledge the verdict likely won’t have a strong sway with swing voters.

“We have to stay focused on the task we have ahead of us, and that’s the election,” Seawright said. “The president has to focus on the policy and political threat that Donald Trump presents if he were to be granted four more years in office.”

Biden has been careful not to publicly wade into Trump’s legal troubles. While his campaign recruited actor Robert De Niro to take part in a press conference outside of the courthouse earlier this week, Biden himself has largely avoided the topic. Democrats instead sought to emphasize the split screen playing out before the American public: As Biden hit the campaign trail to talk about issues such as job creation, Trump was sequestered in a lower Manhattan courthouse for days on end.

Republicans say they are prepared for Biden to go on the offense over Trump’s legal issues now that the verdict is in.

“Biden absolutely wants to be able to say that Trump is a convicted felon, because he can’t talk about the economy and he can’t talk about the open border,” O’Connell said.

(I think Biden will definitely talk about how republicans (on Trump's orders) killed the bipartisan border bill, which was a good first step to fixing problems at the border.)