In the debate of whether or not AI will create massive job losses, people seem too focused on past events. Optimists point to the previous industrial revolutions as examples of major economic changes that in the end turned out okay for job sustainability.
But I rarely see people point to one blatant fact: Unlike previous technological advancements, AI isn't industry disruption. It's competency disruption.
Most jobs today consist of repetitive, specific tasks that require average human competence. A.I is only really good at performing specific tasks.
When AI optimists are faced with this proposition, they parry with the notion that in time, we will create new jobs to replace those lost to A.I. But that notion ignores one major problem that prevents anyone from creating such jobs: The IQ gap.
Love it or hate it, IQ is one of the most reliable tests we have on competency. A.I threatens to take not just the existing jobs for people with average IQs, but AI can take every possible job an average person will be able to perform.
The worrying part is that IQ is nigh impossible increase in a major way, and research points to it having a strong connection to genetics. What this means is that no matter how great the education system, most people aren't able to become intelligent enough to get a job in the upcoming future.
TL;DR AI will take the jobs that most people are competent enough to do, leaving only the most intelligent in society to take jobs. The IQ gap will be what separates the working from the non-working, the rich from the poor, the free from the enslaved.
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Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.While AIs evolve, our economies will increasingly have more of us entertaining each other, rather than doing repetitive or demeaning jobs. Until the point they overtake our intelligence. Then we will be the wolves when humans came along and started breeding them into the dogs we have today.
RayLance
Level 2
Mar 5, 2019
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GuitarDoctor
Level 7
Mar 2, 2019
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FedEx plans to eliminate local drivers/delivery persons with it's new "Same Day Bot" [thefuturefedex.com]
GuitarDoctor
Level 7
Mar 2, 2019
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A recent wave of store closure announcements will hit shopping malls across the U.S., leaving hundreds of storefronts empty. Just this week, Victoria’s Secret said it will shut around 50 locations in 2019 — when it normally closes closer to a dozen each year; Gap said it’s closing 230 of its namesake brand’s stores over a two-year span; and J.C. Penney announced it plans to shut 18 department stores and nine of its furniture and home locations in 2019. That builds on recent store closure announcements by Gymboree, Payless ShoeSource, Charlotte Russe and Ann Taylor parent company Ascena Retail, to name a few. A whopping 4,309 store closures were announced by retailers just in the first two months of this year, Coresight Research said in a research note Friday. That’s well ahead of the number of announcements the market research firm was tracking this same time a year ago, it said.
GuitarDoctor
Level 7
Mar 2, 2019
0
I think we’re still a long ways off from a fully functional humanoid AI that could replace people doing average IQ sorts of tasks. I’m happy to have a robovac help out with the housework, but it’ll take a long time to get a fully functioning robo-housekeeper.
jerry99
Level 8
Mar 2, 2019
0
According to presidential candidate Andrew Yang, we are 4-10 years away.
@celticagent I did a search for that but couldn't find such a prediction from Yang, not that I'm aware of any reason to think his view is authoritative. What I did find that seems likely is that new automation will disrupt several industries like truck drivers and checkout clerks. I agree that analysis is needed to plan for that (though checkout clerks are being replaced with self-checkout without any visible impacts).
Why would we want work? Machines can make life easier for everyone. The goal should be less work and more play, more leisure for family and friends, for hobbies and sports.
With the greater efficiency afforded by AI, products will be cheaper and hours can be cut.
WilliamFleming
Level 8
Mar 1, 2019
1
I thought that about 40 years ago when 'robots' started appearing in car factories. I was way too optimistic.
@GothRik A robot is nothing more than a labor-saving machine, used for greater efficiency. In 1900 cars were very expensive. When Henry Ford introduced efficiency into the manufacturing process cars became affordable. It was bad for those highly paid expert craftsmen who had previously made cars, and they had to adapt in the interest of the general population.
IMO the more efficient our production the greater real wealth everyone will enjoy.
@WilliamFleming There has been quantum leaps in technology in the last 40 years, but, I have not seen that translate into improving the working mans life (ok material things have improved), when a working couple find it difficult to make ends meet, food banks on the increase, etc., I do not see the 'wealth' that should have been 
I wish it was otherwise
@GothRik Maybe things will get ironed out. People would be much better off if the health care industry could be overhauled.
All told, life is better on average than in 1900, wouldn’t you think? Yeah, there was a lot of work to be done—plowing, hoeing, picking cotton, etc. lots of people lived in shacks with open wells and outhouses, and they died young.
I agree though, we need fairer distribution of wealth.
the emphasis on IQ strikes as elitist. I doubt AI can mock street savvy or born salespeople.
I would say my job is safe, but I was a 96' long robotic arm build a house in 2 days.
CallMeDave
Level 8
Mar 1, 2019
2
Elitist or not, the point is that AI will take over all of the routine jobs that average people have. I was in the supermarket yesterday and there were no cashiers, only self-checkout registers. This is a huge supermarket chain with hundreds of stores all over the north east. Home Depot has also eliminated cashiers. Whole Foods is on its way to eliminating them...we've already eliminated toll road jobs. Police won't be hired to catch speeders, sales people won't be needed, insurance adjusters, lawyers, xray techs, lab workers...I think one job is sacred: Nursing. We will need more nurses!
Seems we’re drifting that direction… But off the top of my head I came up with several jobs that ‘AI’ could not do or replace, including mine.. There will likely come a balance, as in, how much would be spent to design an all terrain robot to reforest a muddy hillside vs. how much would it cost to find a human to do the same? And, who delivers, services and monitors the machine?
Funny, no matter how advanced voice recognition technology becomes, I’ve not had one ‘machine’ on the other end of the phone not have to connect me with a human. They just don’t get it, and likely never will.
As I coast toward retirement, no machine could duplicate the skills or creativity either of my adult children are utilizing on a daily basis, or my own. I’ll sleep well ~
Varn
Level 8
Mar 1, 2019
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