What I have read is there will be a slow down of less than 8 months to a year but no recession or certainly not a depression. Trump's false rise in manufacturing is certain to evaporate, the giant sucking sound of outsourcing American service jobs will continue, after 3 years of Trump asking American manufacturers to bring jobs in the U.S. from China and Mexico has not worked and the interest rates have been cut 3 times already this year. These are not good signs. The tariffs are making farmers and manufacturers nervous but I believe Trump will time the huge announcement of reaching a great deal with China enough in advance of the elections next year. That will put the stock market on steroids.

In the big picture, I have seen that in all the talk on TV, online and print media by the experts we often do not talk about the truths of what is happening around us:

1. As Buttigieg said, the nostalgia of of the gone by days is wrong. The gone by days were not great to begin with
2. As Andrew Yang said, government policies, outsourcing alone have a very little to do with what is happening with the economy today. The jobless economic recovery or recessions is the result of improved technology and automation. It has been happening around is slowly but steadily for the last 30 years and it is irreversible. This will continue and accelerate in the years ahead as the technology improves. Many jobs will cease to exist. The days of 3 generations working ina GM factory in Detroit without finishing high school are over.
3. No country can progress by being protectionist and without accepting the global economy
4. Advanced countries will be affected more where the technology impacts first. It will affect slowly in the 3rd world countries where the economies are slow to adopt new technology, protectionist and depend heavily on labor

Trump's disasters will come to light after he falls. His allies, friends and advisers will know that he has no power or influence over them and they will start talking.

Seem to be certain, but when is another issue. No one knows when. Even the Fed predicts bad times ahead. Similar conditions existed before the great depression, in some ways, but in other ways things are very different, and better.