I've been looking at total world figures for this pandemic, and the percentage of fatalities seems to be rising. (But bear in mind that this is a lagging indicator)
Last week it was 4.9% tonight it is 5.4%
The overall figure for the USA is only 2.7% at present, heavily concentrated in New York.
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Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.I watched a documentary today about the Black Plague in the 14th century, and how the researchers figured out the death toll.
60% total. 6 out of every 10 people. A huge factor in the high rate of death was, the previous year there was a famine across Britain and parts of Europe; many of the skeletons recovered showed severe malnutrition.
With covid19, we have an already stressed population with no healthcare who have struggled to survive. I’m afraid that will affect mortality.
I look at my group of family and friends, and I can’t imagine even one gone from covid19. I think it’s going to a lot worse before the curve is flattened. I wish I felt more hopeful, but I don’t.
CarolinaGirl60
Level 8
Apr 4, 2020
1
The percentage increases dramatically as the hospitals reach capacity. Then they start to triage and many won't be treated, equalling increased mortality rate. That's the whole motivation behind the idea of "flattening the curve", to avoid reaching treatment capacity
Cyklone
Level 7
Apr 3, 2020
2
Spot on.
Percent of what though? Percent of positive tests, right? And how many positives are being missed due to lack of widespread testing? Maybe USA's figure is lower because we're less restrictive on who gets tested?
bingst
Level 8
Apr 3, 2020
1
At the beginning the US was more restrictive about who was tested. To a certain extent that is still true depending on location.
Percentage of deaths. From the original post: "the percentage of fatalities seems to be rising"
@bingst @Lorajay @Cyklone
This, being a lagging indicator, is especially "suspect" during the early stages. It lags because deaths are not instantaneous, but usually happen 10 to 20 days after first infection.
Of course, whilst fatalities are obvious, infection totals are only the known ones. Mild cases can escape unnoticed.
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