So when does the U.S. overtake Italy in deaths due to COVID-19? While still with a substantial lead Italys deaths (14,000 +) are only doubling about every 9 days, while the U.S. (7000 +) is doubling every 3 days.
I'm going with 5 since i expect the U.S. doubling rate to go from 3 days to 2 within a day or two, and Italy's to go from single digits into double in 3 or 4 days. Your optimism may vary.
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Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.As of EOB on day 6, Italy is at dead 18.8k, and the US at 18.6k. Tomorrow, or maybe later tonight (which is tomorrow in Italy)...
MarkiusMahamius
Level 7
Apr 10, 2020
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As of now (EOB in NYC, day 5) the count is at 18.3k dead in Italy and 16.1k in the US. I actually don't think we will catch up by tomorrow either. Its close though. It was looking like italy would be over 20k and the US was going to be 19k. So this is pretty big.
MarkiusMahamius
Level 7
Apr 9, 2020
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so as of today, Italy is at about 16.5k and the US at 10.5k. IF they continue to follow their growth curves (the US is doubling every 3 days, Italy every 13), in three days Italy will be at about 20.3k and the US will be at about 21k. Thats five days from your original post. If trends continue without much change. This is a nail biter. If both countries continue to "dampen the curve", Italy will actually stay ahead of the US
MarkiusMahamius
Level 7
Apr 6, 2020
0
so the predicted numbers for tomorrow: Italy is currently at 17.1k with a doubling time of 14 days. US is at 13k and doubling every 4 days. So tomorrow (5 days from your first prediction) we may see something like 18.3k for Italy, and 16.25k in the US. Based on the original curve thats really good for everyone. Especially me, since you now owe me tons of money.
side note, two days out, they should be about tied. you should have voted for me, i mean, voted for my stance.
perhaps i spoke to soon. Italy is now, just a few hours later, reporting 17.7 think and the US 14.3k. Which would be just under 20k for Italy tomorrow, and 17.6 for the US. IN two days that will be just over 20k for Italy and just under 21k for the US. intersting to see how these numbers/models go, and how eaily a little multiplier becomes a huge issue when inverted
What’s the point? Why does it matter? We have five times the population of Italy so it’s not a meaningful comparison.
WilliamFleming
Level 8
Apr 4, 2020
1
1of5:
It's a very meaningful comparison of different societies response to the disease. The number that matters is the rate of increase/decrease, which is independent of actual population size.
1of5:
@Fernapple but I don't want to do that. Literally the only number that's even remotely indicative of how well a country is doing in containing this is how many people die from it - general testing isn't even remotly adequately widespread enough to be useful.
So while Italy may lose a higher % of people due to a wide variety of reasons (density, age variations, cultural issues, etc) that's not what this number is even intended to be a measure of. It's pretty much the best indicator of how measures society is taking are working, and also doesn't indicate if every society should do the same things.
At some point Italy’s doubling rate will be infinity or at least extremely long because all those who were going to die will have died That rate won’t say anything about the success of their methods.
@WilliamFleming this isnt about success of their methods, this is about US supremacy
Im going with 6 days, since thats the closest to "splitting hairs"
MarkiusMahamius
Level 7
Apr 4, 2020
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