so the predicted numbers for tomorrow: Italy is currently at 17.1k with a doubling time of 14 days. US is at 13k and doubling every 4 days. So tomorrow (5 days from your first prediction) we may see something like 18.3k for Italy, and 16.25k in the US. Based on the original curve thats really good for everyone. Especially me, since you now owe me tons of money.

side note, two days out, they should be about tied. you should have voted for me, i mean, voted for my stance.

perhaps i spoke to soon. Italy is now, just a few hours later, reporting 17.7 think and the US 14.3k. Which would be just under 20k for Italy tomorrow, and 17.6 for the US. IN two days that will be just over 20k for Italy and just under 21k for the US. intersting to see how these numbers/models go, and how eaily a little multiplier becomes a huge issue when inverted

It's a very meaningful comparison of different societies response to the disease. The number that matters is the rate of increase/decrease, which is independent of actual population size.

@Fernapple but I don't want to do that. Literally the only number that's even remotely indicative of how well a country is doing in containing this is how many people die from it - general testing isn't even remotly adequately widespread enough to be useful.

So while Italy may lose a higher % of people due to a wide variety of reasons (density, age variations, cultural issues, etc) that's not what this number is even intended to be a measure of. It's pretty much the best indicator of how measures society is taking are working, and also doesn't indicate if every society should do the same things.

At some point Italy’s doubling rate will be infinity or at least extremely long because all those who were going to die will have died That rate won’t say anything about the success of their methods.

@WilliamFleming this isnt about success of their methods, this is about US supremacy

Naw, just total. I've seen some folks math skills on display around here.