US Politics -
I am wondering about the claim that if a Republican goes against the establishment and votes to convict Trump, then that would bring great harm to their careers and future electability. With some constituencies, might it be the opposite? Is the tide turning? Could a defiant principled Republican then join the new emerging center-right coalition whether it's called a different party? Or perhaps remain a Republican, but then observe that the constituency is somewhat accepting of such a stand?
Or not? Maybe that's a farce and the reality is just that Republicans have to vote to acquit or their careers are doomed, regardless of their states or districts.
I don't know for sure, though I think the latter argument is too extreme and somewhat amounts to scare-tactics. I think many voters such as myself will sit up and take notice of those Republicans who defy the establishment and cast a vote of conscience, and if their judgment and conscience are decent. As an independent, already I'd say that any Republican who voted for impeachment in the house is instantly added to my short list of candidates I would personally give consideration to for higher office in 2024. This includes (I guess, for want of better knowledge) Liz Cheney, despite that I think her father was one of the worst VP's we've seen.
If you listen to the Georgia phone call with Trump, you hear him threatening Brad Raffensperger. That's what they do. The insurrection was just a warning.
Sure. But surely there comes a moment when folks realize that, even if the threat of retaliation from Trump is extremely real, and even if the threat of voters turning their backs in droves on them is very real, so too there is the possibility that some voters will turn their backs on them if they don'tstand up to this deep moral and legal corruption that former President Trump has left us with..... that whether or not they stand up to this will define whether or not they win some of our votes.....
They may complain that they are left between a rock and a hard place, but I think that's the price they pay.
Another dynamic here is the probability of either an entirely new party to which they can belong or of a coalition forming within the existing Republican Party. Assuming one or both of those things has some likelihood of coming to pass, it does hold open a slight possibility of a brighter outcome for any Republican Senator concerned that voting against Trump is career suicide.