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My guesses:

  • The US Supreme Court will, at least to a degree, reverse course on Roe V. Wade
  • I'm not sure what to guess on whether the US Supreme Court will do what former President Trump wants, as to blocking access, of the committee investigating the January 6 insurrection, to his records. If I have to guess, I'll guess they will impair access at least to some degree.

My logic is:
Conservatives, including the Trump administration, have spent most of the last two decades getting their majority in place. Roe V. Wade has been used as a sort of acid test in the vetting process (no matter whether it is explicitly stated) and while it is not possible to know with certainty how any justice will rule, I think the nominators did their homework on this point as strongly as on any. I think it would be naive to harbor too much hope that many or any of them will seek to protect Roe V. Wade.

As to protecting the relevant White House records from access by the committee:
I'm guessing nominees were put into place probably with an understanding or educated guess that they would vote with Trump's perceived desires when the time came. Maybe it would be illegal to try to get an agreement, but based on past Trump administration behavior, it seems a reasonable guess that from that Administration's point of view, the nomination would not have happened if they did not expect what they have called "loyalty" to Trump, over loyalty to the job or to the Constitution. There have been instances in history when Supreme Court Justices have defied expectations (if I recall) and it would not be shocking for my guess to be wrong. Further, it could be argued that even moderate Justices may try to temper the ask on the part of the committee, not so much in the interests of the former President, but out of concern for any chilling impact on conduct in the office in the future. I don't know what will happen here, but a year ago around this time it seemed like the former President wanted to get his argument over the supposedly stolen election to the Supreme Court, and I think it was because he thought they would be somewhat sympathetic, not on the merits, but out of loyalty. He's probably thinking similarly here. We'll see what happens.

kmaz 7 Dec 23
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3 comments

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In a nation full of people who thought that four more years of Trump (which would have meant an end to the rule of law) was a good idea, and where many of those people were represented by Senators who twice voted not to convict in Impeachment proceedings, it's hard to foresee a good outcome to some of the legal proceedings, but if the records are released to the House team investigating January 6, then presumably they would probably show a fair amount of actionable behavior. In this ridiculous environment, where members of Congress are afraid of what the committee will find because they abetted the very people who attacked Congress, it's still a longshot to get real punishment lined up for Congress people or people in the White House, but it is tempting at least to think about it a bit.

kmaz Level 7 Dec 23, 2021
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Fortunately a number of Trump appointed judges sided with the law and the Constitution when Trump's baseless "Stop the Steal" lawsuits came before them. If his attempt to block access to his records is without merit, hopefully they will rule so. Roe vs Wade, idk.

If Roe v Wade is partially or entirely toppled, then I wonder if some of the secular conservatives will turn this around and say it's the fault of the leftists for being unreasonable on all manner of other things, so they had to make their unholy alliance with the religious conservatives, with abortion rights being one of the biggest acid-test prices to pay.

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Reversing Roe would do two significantly negative things for the GQP: 1) It would mobilize women for subsequent elections; and 2) It would open the door for the democrats to pack the court with additional justices and then undo the GQP benefits accrued from Citizens United and other bogus decisions.

Maybe. My guesses here are as to what might happen with the court. I haven't thought quite as much about the consequences and aftermath of a full or partial Roe reversal. I reckon we would need a constitutional amendment, or at least some legislation of some sort, but we live in a country where such a large portion of the population is so irrational on this point (much of that irrationality relating to their religious views) that I don't see legislation passing, and if it did, the opponents of abortion are so hysterical that I doubt it could be fully effectively enforced.

Fortunately, we are a mobile society, so going to another state is mainly a problem for the very poor. Also, abortifacients are available by mail. The problem of rape and incest remain. Instances have developed of incarcerating women on murder charges stemming from simple miscarriage. Hopefully, the younger generation will remember what MFers the GQP have been and twist the knife when it's their turn.

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