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Some heretical remarks from a distant observer:

  1. The UNITED States of America no longer exist. They only exist on the institutional level, but institutions need the political support of citizens to be fully functional. Without this mental background, institutions are dead, they become hollow shells (example: if you look just at the institutions, Russia is a democracy !) Trump's top-down coup failed not because of institutions, but because of the minds of dozens of judges who put law and due process above ideology or tribal affiliation.

  2. The territory of the country formerly known as USA is populated by two cultural tribes locked in mutual hatred. Ideally, these two tribes should also inhabit two separate countries (maybe like Scotland and England after a referendum), but this is simply not feasible. The two tribes have to share the same big space between Canada and Mexico, even if there is no cultural and political common ground between them.

  3. Given that the ideal solution (two different countries) is impossible, what about a pragmatic solution: to partially dismantle the institutional framework of the former USA. Here in Europa, the EU has the guiding principle of becoming an ever closer Union (hint: it does not work). The USA could go in the opposite direction of an ever looser union.
    That would mean that all those highly controversial issues the two tribes cannot agree upon (i.e. abortion, gun control, drugs, education, minority rights etc...) would be dealt with on the level of the member states. Sure, in some states, where the two tribes are almost even, the cultural war would go on, but the majority of states are either solidly blue or red.
    That is exactly what will happen with abortion if Roe v Wade will be overturned. The issue will be decided by the states.
    But frankly, would that be such a bad thing?
    People would decide locally how they want to live instead of one big One-size-fits-all which will always be contested by one of the two tribes? One could say that the result would be a mere patchwork, but isn't a patchwork better than a constant cultural war?

Matias 8 May 6
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4 comments

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Don’t fret. We’ll figure it out. It’s just growing pains from learning how to use social media.

If you put all the reds in one country and all the blues in another, the internal divisions would re-emerge in a week. They are not essentially ideological, but biological, exacerbated by technological change. All cultures have had these elements of human nature to deal with, minus the current technology which makes them super-normal stimuli.

skado Level 9 May 6, 2022

@Matias
Yes, it's been building for a while. Even, arguably, for twelve thousand years. But the internet threw gasoline on the fire. The internet represents a super-normal stimulus for sapiens. I think we can learn to adapt, but it might take us a generation or two... assuming we are lucky enough to survive that long.

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Yes, the US feels terminal to me, as a foreigner, and I grew up with 1960s assasinations and race riots and all that, and I never thought that about America back then. It's different now. America has always been a corrupt and undemocratic country. But back then the institutions were corrupt but strong -- that is not incompatible, merely undemocratic. Trump exposed how weak both the institutions are and the union is now.

On your first point, while I agree that some judges helped to stop Trump's top down coup, I also think that the refusal of the top military to fall in with Trump and co strongly prevented the fall of the country. I don't think this is appreciated enough. Coups succeed when weak political systems are corrupted by a dominant authoritarian leaning political party with elite supporters, a mass popular movement of supporters, and a compliant military which 'suspends democracy' to stop disorder. In Jan 21, 2 of the 3 elements were in place, but the third, the military, was barely strong enough to resist. In the future the Republicans will purge the military and install their own puppets. Next time, the third element will be in place, and there will be nothing to defend their so-called democracy.

Truth is, the US has always been a fractured country posing as a union, certainly since the civil war. This fragile forged union managed to hold in the 20th Century through world wars and the post ww2 prosperity. But with globalization, American capitalism focused on the elites, growing racial and social diversity, and gross inequality all but destroying the myth of the so-called American dream, these schisms are irreconcilable, and given the predictable pattern of American elections -- mid terms then general elections -- it is hard to see any outcome other than authoritarianism and division.

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  1. Agreed.
  2. Agreed.
  3. I don't really think this works. The states will still be supporting each other in various ways. Not sure how that's possible with them essentially functioning like separate countries. People that can't afford to move are going to be stuck in backward ass places where the women are essentially property? Not to mention the ones that want to go to neighboring states to get an abortion will do so at the peril of anyone who helps them? Then the flip side, a state can ban guns to protect their children like they do in so many other countries, but someone that wants to shoot up a school can just hop over the border and get an automatic with massive clips and thousands of rounds? I don't want women in Texas to be able to choose because it affects me personally, I want them to be able to choose because I believe that's a right I want for the people in my country. A sort of badge of "who we are". That badge is really tarnished. I'd like it if we could polish it up even if we have to drag the other side kicking and screaming like children to do it... but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.
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matias,, you are groping for answers in about the way I did. First, make a counterfactual statement, then explore it for where the truth lies.

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