Is this the end of America?
It certainly will be a lot different if and when this is over but can the USA ever recover?
Several factors are at play here.
Firstly leadership; whatever you think of Trump pro or con he has been a long way from Churchillian during this crisis. He is by nature divisive and partisan when what was needed was someone who could unite the nation. If you had an FDR, Ike, JFK, or even a Nixon or Bush? Then you might be dealing with this better. Instead, you have a petty narcissist that seems to care more about his own political chances than doing the right thing. A real C in C could have brought all parties together on a united front. He has demonstrably failed to do that. Now before any of you, Trumpers say that is all the fault of the Dems and the media let me remind you that the buck stops with him.
Secondly, we have the disease itself;
Countries that have had the most success in tackling it have instigated a large amount of social control. Yes, they used widespread testing but also people have done pretty much as they were told. S Korea went as far as using a phone app that told the authorities where you have been and who you have been in contact with. Americans would be screaming about their constitutional rights at the very thought of that one. Because individual states have been left to decide what measures are necessary, the lockdown has not been complete. As each state bows to pressure to re-open (again Trump has not led very well here) you are likely to see 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th waves of re-infection. Only when an effective vaccine is available will there be a chance of eradicating the disease and by that time most Americans will not be able to afford it.
Thirdly the economy;
Decades of mounting debt has left the USA in a very vulnerable position. Before this, the US could count on the fact that it was pivotal to the economy of the world. No one would call in its markers because it would bring down the whole structure. However, after this crisis, everyone will be struggling. Leading banks and institutions will try and cover what they can but there are limits to what they can do. All currency trading is now conducted by bots that will not take into account the consequences of their actions. In the end, the market will out. In a world where cash is king, interest rates will inevitably rise. (they have been kept artificially low for too long now anyway). With that inflation will sore and a dollar won't go very far.
In a worst-case scenario, I can see better off states seceding from the union. Maybe Hawaii or Alaska will be first?
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Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.Trump cannot bring anything together unless you show openly that you like him. Think on that before you call him a leader.
It has been pointed out that MEGA hats are a "mark in the forehead." I found that rather comical.
One school of thought says Trump could resign at last minute so that Pence could pardon him of all or any crimes. How does that work? Does it mean that there is no election?
DenoPenno
Level 9
Sep 15, 2020
1
Nixon did it with Ford. VP Agnew resigned under a cloud a week or 2 earlier and Ford pardoned them both I think, certainly Nixon. Constitutionally it is feasible whether Trump will go of his own accord is doubtful considering is "perfect and tremendous" leadership. If it does happen then it will be after the election, He is too delusional to think he will lose. It may take a respective impeachment if that is possible which I doubt or a constitutional amendment which would require a 2/3s majority in the Senate to stop it.
The election is constitutionally unstoppable and the result has to stand. Even the civil war could not stop that. So if Biden gets the electoral college votes then he is POTUS in January barring any coups.
IMO covid is a minor disruption when compared to climate change and the AI evolution. The effects of the covid pandemic are bad, but probably not as bad as the Spanish Flu (1918 flu pandemic) that killed 17-100 million people. Even if covid kills 100M people, it's about 1% of world population.
Deaths from climate change could be 100%, and deaths from AI could be, too. Deaths from climate change have been estimated at 50%, but no one knows. It does seem likely that deaths from climate change will exceed 1%.
EdEarl
Level 8
Apr 20, 2020
1
In 1918 there was not the same level of mobility and US debt. The chances of re-infection are much higher now. All it would take is 1 or 2 new cases from somewhere else and the USA could face another outbreak.
Added to that, the amounts of money that the federal govt is having to borrow on top of its already astronomical debt and its consistent deficit will put the dollar under insurmountable strain.
Totally agree about the environment, a 6 degree temperature raise could deoxygenate the planet to an extent that things will be unrecognisable.
You must know much more about AI than me, that is a threat that I’m largely unaware of at this stage.
@girlwithsmiles higher temps & more carbon dioxide lead to Incredible plant growth and plants make oxygen. Google views of Earth isn past warmer times.
@AnneWimsey not so good for sea plants, which cause a lot of oxygenation currently. But time will tell, life adapts and changes. Some scientists have said that a 6 degree increase in temp will kill phytoplankton.
[firstpost.com]
[earthsky.org]
@girlwithsmiles There are many species of phytoplankton, with different preferences for temperature. Some will survive and flourish, but it is conceivable a mass die-off would leave too little oxygen for most fauna and force many into extinction.
@EdEarl exactly, the scary thing is we won’t know the full story unless we live it out, there are always unknown variables.
@girlwithsmiles The good thing about te algae part of phytoplankton is it can double mass in 1 day, which means reduced oxygen would likely exist for a short time. Moreover that oxygen would mainly be from water. Oxygen in the air dissolves slowly into water.
Much good reasoning there. I would add that, except in cases of revolution and insurrection, dominant nations do not suddenly collapse, they tend to decline. It could, of course, be down a pretty steep slope of, say, a decade, probably not a straight line slope, more of a slightly straightened, backwards "s" shape.
Petter
Level 9
Apr 20, 2020
1
The Weimar Republic went downhill very quickly. Come to think of it, that happened after the Spanish flu pandemic.
Things happen a lot more quickly in the electronic age. Trade is conducted in nano seconds. Information is practically instant.
@Petter Initianaly stuff will be really cheap (I am looking at buying a guitar). Property will go down in value and lots of warehouses will be full of things that no one can afford to buy. Gold would be a good investment. The price may even go down at first due to all the people popping their tom but it will rise as it does in a recession.
@273kelvin I used to hold 100 ounces of the stuff. The return was lousy, I might as well have just kept cash in the bank at a miserable rate of interest.
I switched to property, which has kept pace with inflation and at the same time brought me in an average 4.5% return after maintenance expenses.
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