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Very well done and informative. One thing I have started to notice is the importance of ventilation. Our laundromat has reopened and I asked one user about this and she said no extra ventilation but the door is always opened. And we thought changes when more places went non-smoking was a lot!
Why the hell do we have to get all this information 2nd and 3rd hand? Why aren't we leading the world in dealing with this? Why are we so poor and small in dealing with something we had foreseen and planned for for decades?

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This isn't the first time I have seen this modeling for the spread. mcgeo52 posted this and I'm posting the link here: [threadreaderapp.com] .
Whether you think it's overblown or not 120,000 dead Americans to date that could possibly have been avoided really bothers me.

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I feel very lucky to live in Southeastern CT....although pretty close(2 hours 9n I-95) to NYC &we jget lots of vacationers from there, everybody wears masks & businesses limit the amount of people inside at one time. And we have had no big outbreaks!

But CT has had 120 deaths per 100,000. You are right up there with the other states in your area. Compare that with 8 deaths per 100,000 for Texas, 18 for Alabama. The US as a whole is only 38.

[theguardian.com]

120/100,000 is only a tenth of a percent. This whole episode is blown greatly out of proportion.

@WilliamFleming that is the western end of the state, by & large, the end adjoining NYC. Once again proving statistics can be misleading. We have never, since this started, had our hospitals even close to full, nevermind "overwhelmed".....i only have heard of 6 local nfections & 2 deaths since early March! And since I belong to an "over-65" social group, I would hear! Also our government & governor have been totally on top of things, even innovating things, like nursing home supervision, that were adopted by other states.

@AnneWimsey That’s great that your part of the state is doing well so far. My county has had 50 cases but most are already well and there have been no deaths at all.

@WilliamFleming I love the numbers game. 38 per 100,000 does not seem too bad until you have situations like NYC with it's dense population.
Had the trump admin and trump himself not been so focused on the trade "deal" and ignoring the warnings that were actually out there as early as November 2019 there would not have been 120,000 American deatths.
On one hand it may be overblown but and that's for me is a HUGE but - this ain't the flu. This ain't the common cold. People are contagious and have no symptoms. Extensive modeling has shown in enclosed spaces with recirculated air one asymptomatic person can infect almost 50% of the people in a small office space, bus or restaurant.
There is medical documentation that multiple organs are effected besides the lungs. Strokes and clottings issues are well documented. AND to date there is no effectivetreatment.
Finally those who do survive the unknown factor is what if any long term damage there may be.
I know people who survived polio but had issues years later.
Ever had shingles?
I guess by now it's clear I don't think it's over blown. Just my opinion.

@silverotter11 Compare it to epidemics of old like cholera, yellow fever, etc. where three to nine percent of a population would die. Something like this would hardly have been noticed in the old days.

I know that some people suffer long-term effects. Most of the casualties however are people who are near the end of their lives anyway. Our bodies are frail and temporary by design.

I don’t think politicians of any stripe could have done much. The heaviest hit areas are under the control of Democrats, but that is only because of their dense populations, not politics.

@silverotter11 in the “mind” of a lot of people (trumpers) “if it doesn’t affect me it is not important”. Of course, if it does kill the person he is not going to talk about it at all.

@WilliamFleming Italy & China & Spain are actually doing well, after taking firm & fast steps, so, BS on "nothing we could do"!

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