Does tomorrow go off without a hitch?
(Had to edit because there is a character limit on polls.)
My guess (just a guess, not based on any actual evidence,) is a 20% chance that everything goes smoothly, a 75% chance that there are violent demonstrations in more distant locations...and a 5% chance that the Capitol dome is demolished by explosives planted earlier.
I don't believe they will get anywhere near the inauguration, but who knows what will happen elsewhere in the country. I think as many people they have identified inside the Capitol, over 300 so far, many losing their jobs and being arrested; I am expecting many will not be quite so bold. We will see.
Many Trump supporters from December aren't Trump supporters after January 6th because they saw how many domestic terrorist they were associated with, and many including some that I work with are just now discovering that there was NO voter fraud of any consequence and what was found was typically perpetrated by Trump supporters not actual Americans.