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The Republican Party is cracking under the stress of the influence of 🦧.

The Mitch McConnell “RINO” wing of the party is small but growing with GOP candidates not up for election in 2022 beginning to push for a “let’s move on policy” countering 🦧’s “stolen election grievance ”.

Many GOP candidates have been targeted with primary challengers for insufficiently supporting the stolen election grievance.

These challengers are likely to win the GOP nomination, but given the radical nature of these candidates they will have a much smaller appeal to the independent voters.

According to most media prediction it is likely the GOP will gain seats in the house and take control of the senate in the 2022. I understand that historically these predictions are valid under normal circumstances. I contend that given the the existing conditions it is likely to see the opposite occur especially if the Democratic base can rise out of it’s funk and show up at the polls in 2022.

If this happens I consider it very probable that a permanent schism will occur in the GOP.

I understand that there are many “ifs” in my premise defined here. What are you thoughts?

Garban 8 Feb 25
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5 comments

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1

Republicons haven't really competed in years, they rely on lying, gerrymandering and voter suppression. This year we'll be having the assholes competing with the MAGAs in primaries.

0

I sincerely hope you are right!!!!!!!

0

Yes, the Republican party is seeing a divide. But so is the left. I contend that the left's is much more significant in its effect on elections. In the Republican primary in '16, the candidates were saying unbelievable shit about about each other. Several of them even banded together in a plot to deny Trump the nomination in never-Trumper fashion. As soon as he did, however, these candidates and prominent members of the Republican party changed their tune and started kissing his ass to unite the party at the polls. The Republicans are amazing at this. They hate the liberal ideology so much, that come the general, the R next to your name can absolve you of any sin you may have committed... except mayyyyyybe child molestation. While Roy Moore did barely lose his Senate seat election by two points (let that sink in, almost half of Alabama was cool with a child-molesting US Senator to prevent a liberal one from winning) there were allegations Trump raped an underage girl and he had the highest average approval rating among one's own party in 60 years (see graph below).

So how about the Democrats? We know they have huge disagreements in the primaries as well, albeit less bitter and disgusting, but do they fall in line and vote their party in the general? I don't think so. The Bernie Bros were a very loud, very vocal group of dissenters. There have been a bunch of studies on the percent of Bernie primary voters that defected and voted for Trump with results ranging from 6-12% (see one below comparing numbers of defectors to Trump's win margin in swing states), while one of those studies found that virtually 0% of Clinton primary voters voted for Trump. Could this have cost Clinton the election? Is it at least evidence that party loyalty among Democrats does not come close to matching that of the Republicans?

Add to all this the fact that much of the anti-Trump fervor will be absent in the mid-terms and the fact that Biden's approval ratings are absolute shit, and I think it's the recipe for a slaughter this November for the Democrats.

3

My hope is Democrats will win more seats.

With Republicans' denial of COVID, anti-mask and anti-vaccination stupidity, reasonable, intelligent people will vote against them.

And voter suppression by Republicans will bring out Democrats to vote.

2

Hey pessimists, winning a primary election does not guarantee winning a general election. In 1974 I lost a primary and know that.(grin)

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