The number of people experiencing chronic homelessness in the United States continued to climb in 2023, hitting the highest level for the second year in a row since data collection efforts began more than 15 years ago.

More than 143,000 individuals were estimated to have experienced chronic homelessness — a group that includes people with disabilities who have experienced homelessness for more than a year — during the government’s annual point-in-time count, according to data released last week by the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

That’s about 23,000 more people than were first counted in 2007 and nearly double the nation’s low of 77,000 individuals experiencing chronic homelessness in 2016. Since then, the number has been steadily climbing, with the 2023 count representing a 30 percent change since the 2020 count before the COVID-19 pandemic.

“It’s just gotten easier for people to fall into homelessness and harder for people to exit homelessness,” said Jeff Olivet, director of the U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness. “And it’s like this game of really vicious musical chairs. If someone has a medical condition, a mental health disability, a substance use disorder, it makes it all that much more complex for someone to exit homelessness.”

There are many reasons for the unfettered rise of chronic homelessness, said Ann Oliva, CEO of the National Alliance to End Homelessness. Among them include the expiration of pandemic-era eviction bans, the dwindling or end of local COVID relief funds, and rising rents.

The nation has also been battling mental health and substance abuse crises for years, Olivet said.

But both experts pointed to a severe affordable housing shortage as the single largest driver for homelessness, chronic or otherwise.

“What we see is an incredible deficit of affordable housing units in this country where there are only about one unit for every three extremely low-income renters who need it,” Olivet said.

The federal government defines chronic homelessness as living in “a place not meant for human habitation” or a shelter for more than a year with a range of conditions, including a physical, mental or developmental disability or substance use disorder. The definition also includes people who’ve had breaks in homelessness if the cumulative time they’ve spent without a home is 12 or more months over three years.

More than 90 percent of people experiencing chronic homelessness are individuals, and not part of a family experiencing homelessness, according to HUD’s data.

About two-thirds of people experiencing chronic homelessness are unsheltered, meaning they spend the night in places such as a tent, a car or on the sidewalk. Unsheltered homelessness is tied to worse health outcomes, and unhoused people often biologically resemble housed people who are 10 to 20 years older. Those challenges can increase the barriers to finding housing.

“What we see, particularly with people who have complex needs, is a longer duration of homelessness, which is why we start seeing this increase in chronic homelessness,” Olivet said.

The point-in-time count is an annual survey conducted in January by local governmental and nongovernmental programs that support people experiencing homelessness.

Nearly half of individuals experiencing chronic homelessness live in California.

Data from the 2023 point-in-time count also show that around one-third of all people experiencing homelessness nationwide are chronically homeless, which is “the highest share of individuals experiencing chronic patterns of homelessness since these data were first reported in 2007,” the report notes. Nearly half of individuals experiencing chronic homelessness live in California.

Homelessness in general has been back on the rise since 2016, according to HUD data. Between 2007 and 2016, the number of people reported in point-in-time counts as experiencing homelessness dropped from around 647,000 to just under 550,000. Since then, homelessness slowly but steadily increased year over year, until 2023 saw a sharp jump from around 582,000 to more than 653,000.

“We’ve seen an increase in unsheltered homelessness every year since 2016. So it actually follows that the longer people are living outside, and the more people don’t have access to affordable housing and services, that [rising] chronic homelessness then follows,” Oliva

Meanwhile, experts say the market for supportive and affordable housing just keeps getting tighter.

“Permanent supportive housing units that have that rental subsidy attached to them are not turning over as fast as they would normally turn over,” Oliva said. People typically move on from supportive housing when they earn enough income or get another subsidy. Currently, “that’s just not happening,” she added.
Rising need for supports

Both Oliva and Olivet said that the increase in homelessness doesn’t mean progress isn’t being made.

“The number of folks who are being exited from homelessness by the homeless services system is around 900,000, on average in a year, but 910,000 become homeless over the course of that same year,” Oliva said. “So you can see that the system doesn’t actually have the capacity to meet the increased inflow that is being caused by the affordable housing crisis.”

An individual who is at risk of losing housing or who has newly become homeless has different needs from someone who has been unhoused for a long time, has behavioral health conditions, or who is very sick, Oliva said.

“The approach is different and that’s why it’s so important to have permanent supportive housing, which is affordable housing and services for people who are experiencing chronic homelessness,” she said. “The data is really clear. That’s the method that works for folks who have been outside for a long time.”

Housing subsidies and wraparound services are successful even for people with complex needs, Olivet said. He called on Congress to fund programs that focus on mental and behavioral health and stabilizing wraparound services, as well as housing vouchers for young people who age out of the foster care system.

“The situation for so many Americans is really precarious right now. We are seeing first-time homelessness at an incredibly high level. And what that tells me is that we need to do better upstream prevention work. We need to prevent people from losing their homes in the first place,” Olivet said.