Each Friday, I look at what the presidential contenders are saying about foreign policy. This Week: China is following Russia’s lead in meddling in the U.S. presidential election.

by James M. Lindsay
April 5, 2024

Russia opened a new chapter in geopolitical competition in 2016 when it used social media to interfere in the U.S. presidential election. Whether that effort affected the election’s outcome can be debated. What seems beyond debate given Russia’s interference attempts in 2020 and again this year is that the Kremlin thinks that meddling works.

Now China looks to be following suit. In February, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence issued a threat assessment stating: “Beijing is expanding its global covert influence posture to better support the CCP’s goals. The PRC aims to sow doubts about U.S. leadership, undermine democracy, and extend Beijing’s influence.” This week the New York Times reported that “covert Chinese accounts are masquerading online as American supporters of former President Donald J. Trump, promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November.” This campaign, known as “spamouflage,” has prompted Meta to take down thousands of fake Facebook accounts operating in China.

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China’s interference efforts mark a significant shift in policy. In 2021, the U.S. intelligence community concluded that China opted not to interfere in the 2020 election: “We assess that China did not deploy interference efforts and considered but did not deploy influence efforts intended to change the outcome of the US Presidential election. We have high confidence in this judgment.” The intelligence community attributed the Chinese decision to a calculation that the costs of being caught meddling outweighed the potential benefits. Likely influencing that judgment was the assessment “that Russia’s efforts to interfere in the 2016 election significantly damaged Moscow’s position and relationship with the United States.”
The Water's Edge
James M. Lindsay analyzes the politics shaping U.S. foreign policy and the sustainability of American power. 2-4 times weekly.
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Why China has changed its calculations and what it hopes to accomplish are up for debate. Beijing may have decided that a second Trump presidency would better serve its interests than a second Biden presidency, whether because Trump would be more open to cutting a deal, less likely to have an effective foreign policy, or more likely to antagonize U.S. allies. Conversely, Beijing may not see much difference between the two candidates given the broad consensus in the United States that China is America’s primary adversary. Rather than chose between “two bowls of poison,” Beijing’s goal may simply be to weaken American democracy, and hence its ability to act coherently abroad, by inflaming political divisions.

As with Russia’s meddling, it’s difficult to say whether China’s interference will affect the election outcome. The Biden administration, however, isn’t taking any chances. Biden warned Xi Jinping in a phone call this week against interfering in the U.S. election. The fact that call was necessary points to a problem. Last November in San Francisco, Xi promised Biden that China wouldn’t meddle in the U.S. election. That promise now looks hollow. The question is what Biden will do if Chinese interference efforts continue.