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So the Brexit deal was voted down. Does this end Theresa Mays and the Tories hold on power?

Charlene 9 Jan 15
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So the vote against Theresa's deal was massive. But Theresa doesn't know the meaning of defeat. She never accepts it. So she won't stand down. She has the DUP for the confidence vote so is expected to survive that but then she has to come back with another plan to vote on. That can be.

  1. Withdraw Article 50,
  2. Ask the EU for an extension.
  3. People's vote
  4. A "deal" the the EU hasn't agreed e.g. amend the current agreement to have a time limited backstop.
  5. Prepare in earnest for a No Deal Brexit.

I see her coming back to a more ERG friendly withdrawal agreement, getting the votes for that (perhaps after multiple iterations) and returning to Brussels with an ultimatum: "This is what I can offer, do you want no permanent Irish Backstop with a deal, or no Irish Backstop at all with no deal."
Meanwhile having failed to secure a general election the next point of Labour's strategy, if they stick to their conference resolution, will be to press for some sort of public vote. With other option exhausted they may just get it. A lot would depend upon scheduling.

The EU is not known for blinking first. Whilst they are unlikely to sell out Ireland they may see that as a better option than no deal. However they may also press for a public vote and include that as a requirement of an amended deal

For a peoples vote to take place the article 50 process would have to be put on hold and campaigning would take place. The structure of the question asked would need to be agreed. Remain, vs deal vs no deal. And that's where the real battle would take place. None of the three options can claim a clear majority and with a rerun of the dirty tricks of the last campaign it's hard to say what surprises votey mc vote face will come up with this time. Much of the final result may be determined on how the vote is run.

With less the decisive leadership being displayed on either side of the dispatch box I expect that future historians will trace the final result to decisions made by the speaker and the electoral commission.

I would rather a strong a decisive parliament rejected brexit. However with neither side of the house offering representation for the 48% that's not a realistic expectation. Failing that I'd like to see it struck down by a peoples vote. That seems a little fanciful but a few steps towards that end have been taken today.

However the same can be said for a No Deal Brexit .

A variant of 4 is an option - the backstop can't be time limited, but it could have an exit mechanism based on the existence of technology for control-less borders so that the UK can get out of the backstop without needing the EU to agree to it, all on condition that the technology exists and works (which can be demonstrated by putting it in place on all borders for all trade).

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Typically yes, but I think she’ll make the cut tomorrow. She still has a lot of support.

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At any other time yes but not this time. Her deal is dead, there will be a vote of no confidence in the commons but she will probably win it with the support of the Ulster unionists. Any other leader would stand down but she seems determined to cling on. Even tories that tabled a no confidence vote in their own party against her will support her in the commons vote because the alternative is an election which might well bring in Corbyn.

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