They base it on the stock market of which 50% of Americans have no vested interest. They base it on unemployment figures which are never correct, EVER! They keep track of unemployment by those folks collecting unemployment insurance. Not every unemployed person is eligible for benefits, and when you run out of benefits, you are no longer counted. Companies like Walmart hire a lot of part time folks so they are also counted as employed and the company does not have to pay benefits. We are in a bad place and it will only get worse if changes are not made in the near future. These economic realities also create some of the problems we are having socially. IMO

The "gig" economy. I've worked both sides. As an employee of a company. Abd as an employee of a contracting firm. Both models have advantages for the employee.

Personal debt is growing astronomically and when the recession hits within the next 12 months the people who are increasing their debt are going to be in for a depressing surprise.