If you find the pea you win everything you desire with a side order of sex, drugs. and rock n roll with just a little respect.

The pea is under thimble A, B or C. You choose thimble A and then I show you that there is no pea under thimble C. Do you change your guess from thimble A to thimble B or stick with your first choice of thimble A?

• 1 vote

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Sorry, I have a bus to catch.

Level 9 Aug 30, 2021

You read and say, who gives a fuck! No option for that.

Level 9 Aug 29, 2021

This is the Monty Hall problem. Google that, btw. Against all seeming common sense, you should switch.

Level 9 Aug 29, 2021

Yes, exactly, it's an interesting point, I remember it coming up in stats class decades ago.

Yep

Assuming the choice is random - no way to track which thimble the pea is under - the odds of the guess have changed from one in three to one in two when tbimble C in revealed, but the odds between the remaining two thimbles are still even so why is changing an advantage?

As I recall this trick from a magic set years ago, the pea was actually slipped under the edge of the cup and palmed when mixing up the thimbles so none of them have the pea under it.

## Enjoy being online again!

Welcome to the community of good people who base their values on evidence and appreciate civil discourse - the social network you will enjoy.