Having just thrown away my £20 betting ticket for a Biden win. I thought I would check the current odds. The best prices are as follows; Trump 8/13, Harris 7/4 and if you think Kennedy has a chance he is 80/1 over Michelle Obama @ 66/1.
Odds might change, a few hours ago Harris was at 2/1
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Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.I'm still thinking Trump will win over Harris, simply due to voters having hidden racism and sexism, but with Harris, the margin won't be as big as it would have been with Biden, and also, the Dem congressional candidates won't be drug down with her, like they would have with Biden. Speaking of betting, I had a $100 bet made recently with a friend, who is also politically liberal, that Biden would lose to Trump. That bet is now off and moot, and for the time being, I won't make any more bets on the presidential race, as it's too uncertain, esp. until it's final that Harris is the nominee, and there's more polling on the race.
I still think I'm pretty good at predicting these things, as I predicted Trump's win over Hillary, and the only reason I lost a $50 bet to another friend, on the 2020 race, was because I made the bet too early, before Biden even became the nominee and Covid hit, that Trump would beat Biden if Biden was the nominee. My mistake then, was that I didn't realize how bad Covid would be, how much Trump would bungle it, and that the economy would crash from it. So I lost that one, but only because of how much Covid and Trump's performance around it hurt him. Had no way of knowing how much that would swing things, and he would have won reelection, if Covid hadn't happened, since it was clear that the main thing voters wanted from Biden, was better leadership around Covid and the economy, which is about all I expected from Biden and pretty much, all we got from Biden compared to Trump.
TomMcGiverin
Level 8
July 23, 2024
1
I watched online betting all through 2020. (I can bet on this coz I don't live in the land of the free) In December 2019 Trump was a 8/15 favourite as befits an incumbent. As COVID spread and his disastrous response and press conferences continued his odds lengthened. By August 2020 he was a 9/2 outsider, only shortening to 9/4 by November.
Things are slightly different now but some things are not. Trump has a tendency to put his foot in his mouth and he has gotten worse. The more he speaks the fewer votes he will get. A lot of the anti-Trump adverts will feature J.D. Vance's previous vitriol against Trump, not to mention guys like Kelly etc. Harris is not like Biden, who is a bi-partisan deal maker she is a prosecutor. Where he is slow talking and deliberate, she is quick-witted and a firebrand.
The most common complaint that I got from American voters on both sides was that they did not want a re-run of 2020. Well now they have got half of their wish and I think that Trump will lose a lot of independents. Plus all of Trump's campaign was centred on anti-Biden. You can only imagine the panic on Madison Ave atm as they hurriedly try and come up with any overtly not racist/misogynist ads against Harris.
Sure, Hillary lost in 2016 but she did get more votes and Harris is not Hillary, IMHO she is far more likeable.
Yes, there is only a short time by American standards to turn the tables around. But here in the UK, we managed to hold an election and change administration in just 6 weeks so it is possible.
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