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Pick me, Monty, I'm a turnip...

phxbillcee 10 Jan 27
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I'm familiar with this problem, I know what the correct answer is supposed to be, I know it will work out on an experimental basis. However, there's a step missing. It's called "forcing the deck." The actual Monty Hall may be trying to get you to NOT get a car (if the show has given way too many cars that month) or trying to get you the car (if they haven't given away enough. In order to answer the actual Monty Hall problem, we would have to examine each show one after the other and see if there is a pattern of which other door he opens, or if there is some consistent body language or change in vocalization.

That may influence whether Monty offers to let the person change their mind or not, but not in the actual odds of picking the door. As long as you can't "stack the deck" by changing what was already there, Monty actually has no effect on the outcome.

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Pretty cool. Thanks.

skado Level 9 Jan 27, 2018
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