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What percent probability would you assign to the scenario where climate change effects trigger World War III?

(Intervening steps could include climate-caused famine resulting in mass migrations and economic calamity)

#ClimateChange #economic #climate #world
racocn8 9 Jan 7
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3

Level 8

I think there's no question about it! Climate change will make millions of people homeless (think of low-lying areas/atolls/island chains, etc, flooded by rising seas/dying fish) and they'll have to go somewhere. If we think Texans are pissed about immigration now---consider the rest of the world when boatloads of refugees are flocking to foreign shores.

Exactly. Granted that many displacements have been due to conflict, such as Syria, South and Central America. Whatever the final mechanism, these massive displacements and economic calamity will start the ball rolling. At some point, a nuclear power will think the Bomb is the solution.

@racocn8 How about a virus which quickly sterilizes all humans and leaves the rest of life forms alone??? That could be sweet.

Unfortunately, I'm afraid our medical science would figure it out before it got far enough...
0

Level 7

I don't think greatly : 22%
Do you really think destroying the lifeboat would be the highest priority?
Naw.

Use of the term priority infers intentional action. Actually starting WWIII might just be a few explosions, not the massive exchange it ends with.

@racocn8 😶
5

Level 9

Forget oil. Water access will be a major trigger, itself caused by a combination of increased demand due to increased population and reduced supply, in specific areas, due to climate change.

Without reliable water, food sources will dry up (pun intentional) and millions will face either growing their own food or stealing it from others.

2

Level 8

“IDK and IDC” was my grumpy character’s only line in a fourth grade play.

Here, I’m without evidence so IDK works.

3

Level 9

When nobody can get any clean water it will stop everything.

2

Level 8

Either directly or indirectly around 97%

4

Level 8

100% it at least plays a role, but that's not saying much, climate change literally touches everything directly or indirectly.

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