According to Professor Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted the last nine presidential election wins including the Trump victory in 2016, these are the 13 factors that will get Trump re-elected in 2020. The democrats only have one recourse to remove him the office - Impeachment. However, the nation as a whole is not on board with impeachment currently.
Here the 13 factors.
- Party Mandate - After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest - There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency - The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party - There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy - The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy - Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change - The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest - There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Political Scandal - The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failures - The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success - The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma - The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma - The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
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13 comments
Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.The last 9? The only one that was somewhat of those nine would be the last one, and Ms. Clinton still earned 3 million more popular votes even with many people staying home because they thought it was a lock.
Obama twice against bad or unlikeable candidates...Okay McCain was not that bad, but the thought of Palin being a heartbeat away terrified most sane people. (and he would have needed to keep Caribou Barbie far away for his own safety. ) So we're up to three.
bush2 with 2 elections is next. Gore and then Kerry. Gore, like Ms Clinton inspired nearly no one. Also like Clinton he won the popular vote and partisan supreme court elected the P.O.T.U.S. Gore actually won the electoral vote count in the entire state of FL if the count had been continued. The mistake was in asking for the counts in only selected counties. But I would still call both of those, especially Kerry as an easy call and Gore was so awkward in his own skin. So we are up to 5.
the BILL! Twice Obviously. That's 7.
Bush the elder, against...Dukakis? Next! 8
That brings us to Reagan vs Mondale for 9.
So did he miss Carter losing to Reagan for 10?
Carter winning because of Watergate fatigue for 11?
etc.
I would not but much stock in the musings of this twit wit.
A carnival pigeon could have done just as well.
BufftonBeotch
Level 8
May 31, 2019
0
TheoryNumber3
Level 8
May 30, 2019
2
If it happens that's just the way it is.
we need someone more generally acceptable than Hillary
why no third party? Bernie is sure to run
TheDoubter
Level 9
May 30, 2019
1
There's still time. I imagine that a third party candidate or two will run. I'll check from time to time.
he is running,,,but on the Democrat ticket
@thinktwice i haven't heard that
He will be in the debates since he is doing better than many of the others...
@thinktwice he should be in the debates. but the Dems are going to go with Biden I'll bet.
@thinktwice biden has the political ties, but my first choice is Bernie.
@TheDoubter Frankly, I wish both would retire...I think it is time for a younger generation to come in and take over...I am a fan of neither...
@thinktwice i'd like to get the old fogies out of there, too. but given the nature of politics it won't happen.too many ties that go back decades, i'd love to see the Dems go with a younger candidate. cross your fingers.
@TheDoubter At this point in time., I am in the anybody else camp... lol
@thinktwice i have no candidate now. anyone who opposes Trump will get my vote,
Donald will win if the democrats insist on pushing forward candidates that their constituents don't want. Just like with Hillary, people wanted Bernie but they refused to have him.
Jolanta
Level 9
May 30, 2019
2
I do not like this fact but a Jewish, Mormon, atheist and gay candidate will not be elected president in this country for at least 30 more years. A black candidate will not be elected for 30 years either. Barack Obama came during a perfect storm in 2004. Those conditions are unlikely to come again.
The country is almost ready for a woman candidate but if there is an equally good (not better) male candidate against her, she will lose.
hillary was too slimy for all but the big population areas. we need a candidate that Middle America can support
@OwlInASack Hillary was a typical politician -- no worse than others. but voters didn't like her as a person in addition to not liking her politics. she came off to me as feeling "entitled" to the job. the "rabble" was supposed to support her no matter what. The circles on my 2016 ballot were left blank. but i voted all down ballot issues.
@OwlInASack in addition to signing off on our uranium reserve, she put $$ donations into the Clintons' own foundation.
@OwlInASack Hillary comes off as arrogant, condescending. compare her to bill clinton -- a schmoozer, with a certain charm
Most pundits predicted Hillary winning by a landslide. Ho hum.
AnneWimsey
Level 9
May 30, 2019
2
@Antidronefreeman you are so full of crap I wonder you know which end to sit on, on the toilet.
@OwlInASack lol same here...but the response is funny so I can imagine...
@thinktwice I seem to have struck a nerve....my intention, exactly!
Ask me again on Nov 6, 2020.
jlynn37
Level 8
May 30, 2019
2
@Antidronefreeman No, but any thing that is said about future happenings in politics is just speculation and is heavily biased.
@Antidronefreeman And just how do you know this? Nothing but your speculation and only time will/can tell.
@Antidronefreeman I'm 24 year retired teamster dock worker.
@Antidronefreeman and you think drumpy is concerned with "liberating" them? ROFLMAO
I don't watch the news. Who is this Trump fellow everybody insists on talking about?
I DO vote, and if everybody did, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
Too many people think it's their right to complain about whatshisname, even though they don't VOTE. They do, of course, but their complaints are hollow, meaningless and irrelevant.
VOTE!
Storm1752
Level 8
May 30, 2019
3
Did you hear about the dyslexic atheist?
he didn't believe in dog?
You're absolutely right. I think it might change by election time.
m16566
Level 7
May 30, 2019
1
The same ones who predicted he wouldn't win to begin with? Or different pundits, this time around?
1of5
Level 8
May 30, 2019
3
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