Industry released a figure of 800K sales. How large would the battery electric vehicle sales be be without government subsidies and fleet sales, many to the government? Aren't they just expensive toys for rich suburbanites? I can't own one. Toyota, the largest auto maker, and producer of the best hybrid and plug-in hybrid are certainly capable of producing a full battery electric vehicle. They are working on alternatives. Why is that? Still making a hydrogen car sold only in California. Toyota is working on near zero emissions engines to be used in a hybrid. What would happen if after trillions in infrastructure, EV become somewhat obsolete. Could that happen?

@barjoe

Hi -
I think some or all of your questions may be meant as rhetorical comments, but I'll put my answers:

you mention this: "....Industry released a figure of 800K sales. How large would the battery electric vehicle sales be be without government subsidies and fleet sales, many to the government? ..."

My thoughts:
2021 global EV sales (including both BEV and PHEV) were on the order of 6m+ vehicles (nearly 10%) Source:
[iea.org]
For 2022 I'm not sure what the numbers will be, but they will be higher. When you say 800k, you are probably referring to 2021 or 2022 US EV (BEV+PHEV) sales. I don't know the US numbers offhand, but I'm pretty sure both global and US numbers are increasing, with the rest of the world ahead of the world such as referenced in this quote:

[pcmag.com]

"...For all of 2022, electric cars made up 5.8% of all new car sales in the US and 10% globally, according to the Wall Street Journal, up significantly from 2021...."

I'm not sure about global percentage growth increasing in 2022, but I think if we used consistent data sources we would see some growth their from 2021 to 2022. Note that auto industry sales and pricing numbers overall are a somewhat tough matter from a data standpoint during the pandemic/supply chain constraint years.

Many Americans and other global citizens cannot own EVs for several different reasons (lack of affordability, lack of access to charging, lack of supply of any good BEVs by dealers in some areas, lack of evs available in the segments they need, lack of sufficient hauling and range for some consumer use-cases), but things are changing rapidly, for reasons including the climate emergency and the fact that a really good BEV is simply a better vehicle (in the view of some consumers, in some ways) than good fossil-fueled vehicles. Now that good long-range BEVs are finally available to consumers in many parts of the US and elsewhere, (albeit at still high prices) the moderate sales numbers you reference are increasing. In some parts of the world they are further along and (as far as I know) are to the point of phasing out some of their subsidies. This has not (as far as I know) caused a phase-out of EV sales. I would have to research it further, but I think it could be said that once the sales get going in some areas, the subsidies can be sunsetted and the vehiles survive in the marketplace on their own merits. In other aspects, we should understand that some policies are not going away. The relatively high fossil fuel prices we see in some parts of the world, which provide one incentive to go with BEVs, are partly the result of local policies, and partly the result of industry dynamics, and are not likely fully to go away, though they may go through their downs and ups.

Toyota is great on non-pluggable hybrids, and on hybrids, but is just about the worst laggard among the established volume automakers on BEVs. They have just changed CEOs in part because the old CEO did not have a good handle on their need to move toward BEVs more quickly. They still do not have a full commitment, but have improved in their long-term vision. From a customer or consumer short-term standpoint however, Toyota is still among the worst. I am not sure they should be counted as knowing fully what they are doing, when they do try to make BEVs. Their one or two (counting Lexus) BEV models have I guess recently become a bit more competitive, and that's nice to see, but they have not established themselves yet as having any of the same leadership on BEVs that they have on HEVs and PHEVs. Their hydrogen efforts appear in my view to be more about serving the company's interests (maintaining high barriers to entry to the industry, and maybe maintaining higher employment at their company?) than about serving customer demand for BEVs. Unfortunately for Toyota, these days, customers have other places to go for BEVs.

The infrastructure investment is a daunting one for BEVs, but I think not as great as it would be to transition to H2V. Keep in mind that if we really do have to move away from 100+ years of gasoline and diesel production and distribution, that's going to require big money, and risk. Seen in that light, one can argue that the amounts of money under discussion for public and private charging are reasonable. But yes, if somehow some better zero-carbon solution emerges, then there is risk of wasting money.

For a number of reasons, Hydrogen transportation is not taken seriously (outside of a few niche applications) by most of the people I know looking at these matters. It is possible that ultimately some form of fuel cell powered transportation could emerge, or that drop-in non-ghg-polluting hydrocarbon fuel replacements could unexpectedly cause a change in direction for the overall global vehicular transportation industry, but it is unlikely.

@kmaz Of course those numbers are for the US. Much of these sales are fleet sales. Rental Companies, government agencies, ride share companies and USPS among others. Toyota already lead the market in plugin hybrid, quantity and quality. They make by far that best and most reliable hybrids, there's no doubt they'd do so in the battery EV market if they chose to, they just haven't chosen to. I think they may be waiting to introduce something better. I doubt very seriously if they want customers to look elsewhere. Word is they are working on Omega-1, near zero emission (supposedly) very small engine to use with a PHEV. It would certainly be more practical.

This article disputes arguments that some people make. As far as cost of ownership and reliability much of those claims are false. By the time infrastructure catches up with EVs they may or may not begin to be obsolete. For now, they aren't practical for most Americans to own, at least in urban areas where reduced emissions are really needed.

Until battery technology can CHEAPLY solve the availability and refueling delay problems, I think PHEV vehicles are the answer. (Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicle)
If batteries could become plentiful and cheap, then I can envisage a situation where you swimply swap-in your partially discharged battery for a full one, and pay the differential

Like many things, changes creep in slowly and unnoticed until suddenly people become aware the change is everywhere.

@DenoPenno The ex is gone but the Monte Carlo is still with you. That Malibu had prolly long since bit the dust.

If I had a place to charge my car at home, I might have taken advantage of the government subsidy. Still sucks for long trips.

@barjoe I rarely do long trips, and my hope is they will continue to extend the range. Or developer solar charging capabilities while you are driving.

You have a smaller carbon footprint than most.

By the time the infrastructure catches up, there could be a near zero emissions internal combustion engine vehicle. Times do keep changing. The technology already exists.

@barjoe Nope. An ICE vehicle is VASTLY more complicated to build and maintain than an EV. When both the vehicles and infrastructure are a huge improvement the switchover is inevitable. The ICE vehicle is the steam engine of our time, it's on the way out except for niche applications. Even EV aircraft are coming into service.

@Druvius Don't drink the Kool-Aid. Tesla is a very unreliable and impractical car. As far as infrastructure, there are 100 gas stations within 5 miles of my house. I'm sure there are public charging stations, somewhere. I don't know of any but I'm sure there are.

@barjoe Luckily, I live in Europe, where more and more people are buying Plug-in hybrids and power companies are being subsidised to install home charging stations, as well as public charging stations in multi-storey car-parks and street parking.
Quite a few people I know have solar panels, which charge up traditional batteries, and these then discharge into their car, giving them virtually free transport.

@barjoe EV car technology has essentially made ICE vehicles obsolete. Those 100 gas stations have a staggering cost in terms of both money and ecological damage compared to charging stations. Now that the cars are vastly simpler to build and maintain, it no longer makes any sense to depend on fossil fuel for vehicles. Times change.

@barjoe, @Petter Exactly, getting to the point where an EV vehicle charges itself just sitting around, when was the last time any ICE vehicle gassed itself up at no cost to the owner?

@Druvius You're so excited about the advantages of owning an EV yet you still have a conventional automobile.

Used car prices in my area are about $6,000 for an older gasoline powered model. Prices vary depending on what you are looking for.

@DenoPenno Brought my Rav4 into the local shop for the first of 4 fee 6-month service interval (tires/check levels for the first) last Saturday. I'd already changed the oil myself. The Rav4 is easy to work on. While waiting an hour at the dealership they had two potential customers looking at used cars. One of them test drove a 2020 xle Rav4 with 32,000 miles. It had an asking price of $29,900. That is about $2,000 less then the new 2022 xle I ordered.

Over a decade ago I picked up my used Honda Accord for a thousand dollars. In the last twelve years I've spent about $2,000 in parts and countless hours of work to keep it running. If I didn't do my own work I would have spent closer to 6,000 to keep it running.

I don't understand how people are willing to spend so much on a used car.

@NoMagicCookie You did very well. I know mechanics who do reasonable work for me although I still do some repair work myself. Used to do it all but I got too old.

@DenoPenno Best to do it yourself. Not sure how many years I have left where I can crawl around under the hood. You're lucky to know good mechanics. Years ago I got lazy and decided to just take it in as it was leaking fluids. The lazy (insert expletive) replaced the valve cover gasket with garbage and did not replace the valve cover spark plug well gaskets so two weeks later the car ran like crap as the spark plug wells were full of oil. If you want it done right - do it yourself. Then the water pump failed. That was not a fun job as after breaking hand tools I had to pick up air power tools. Years later the cheap water pump is again leaking. Not looking forward to replacing that again as it is 100 bolts to get to it, you have to support the engine as you have to remove engine mounts, etc.

I would drive a hybrid but by the time ICE cars are mandated out I'll either be dead or too old to drive. It isn't happening soon.