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LINK The most dangerous place on Earth | The Economist

The test of a first-rate intelligence, wrote F. Scott Fitzgerald, is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function. For decades just such an exercise of high-calibre ambiguity has kept the peace between America and China over Taiwan, an island of 24m people, 100 miles (160km) off China’s coast. Leaders in Beijing say there is only one China, which they run, and that Taiwan is a rebellious part of it. America nods to the one China idea, but has spent 70 years ensuring there are two.

Today, however, this strategic ambiguity is breaking down. The United States is coming to fear that it may no longer be able to deter China from seizing Taiwan by force. Admiral Phil Davidson, who heads the Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress in March that he worried about China attacking Taiwan as soon as 2027.

War would be a catastrophe, and not only because of the bloodshed in Taiwan and the risk of escalation between two nuclear powers. One reason is economic. The island lies at the heart of the semiconductor industry. tsmc, the world’s most valuable chipmaker, etches 84% of the most advanced chips. Were production at tsmc to stop, so would the global electronics industry, at incalculable cost. The firm’s technology and know-how are perhaps a decade ahead of its rivals’, and it will take many years of work before either America or China can hope to catch up.

HippieChick58 9 Apr 29
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9 comments

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1

I wonder how many Taiwanese are looking to Hong Kong as a model. I would assume many residents fear the take-over and are looking to places in which to emigrate.

1

Taiwan is gone.

The South China Sea and all the contiguous countries including Indonesia are expendable.

1

I can think of many who ain't F. Scott Fitzgerald first rate material at all, and would even venture not even second or third rate in the gray matter department.

2

I hope China does not invade Taiwan. I think China needs to be made aware how unpleasant the world would view a move like that would be.

1

It is inevitable that Taiwan will one day be under the arm of China. That is part of China's 100 year plan, which includes vast parts of the South China Sea, parts of India and Vietnam and some other smaller pieces of Southeast Asia. China has even put those on its passports. The Indian government even designed a special stamp for visitors from China that purposely shows their disputed region as Indian. Remember, China has fought wars with both India and Vietnam. I would even go on to say that China's 1979 war with Vietnam pushed them into their biggest and greatest change in their military in decades, becoming a fully modernized and better trained force. Vietnam whooped China's ass then, and not using gorilla tactics. Before that war, soldiers used to spend parts of their days tending to farms and livestock for their food - no longer. Just like other modern militaries, the troops train and civilian companies supply food, etc.

2

I was taught similiar worries in Grade School. And i have heard A Lot 9f variations on this theme throughout my entire life. I am 72 & try hard to only hear lahlahlahla nowadays.

1

Another horrifying fossil from the misbegotten Cold War. Sadly until we live in a world where the great powers recognize self-determination, situations like this will be cause for disagreement and war. I think the parties involved should sit down and negotiate a settlement, that certainly has to be preferable to China ending the rebellion by force or a nuclear war attempting to prevent same.

Perhaps, imo, the very FIRST step SHOULD BE the U.S. ceasing to see itself as the Messiah of Universe, i.e. the Cavalry coming to the Rescue of those who do NOT really want rescuing.

@Triphid been saying this for 50 freakin' years!!!!!!!

@AnneWimsey And me as well.

Unfortunately the idea of self determination in this case is complicated by the fact that, Taiwan claims that it has the legitimate government of China, and that it is mainland China which is the break away state. And should therefore surender itself to Taiwan.

@Fernapple Yes, a state of affairs the US created by pretending Taiwan was the government of China until 1971.

3

So, is what we are seeing here yet another REASON why the U.S. is feeling that ITS interests (????) are being a 'threatened,' presumably, just as was 'believed' with the Iraq W.M.D. Conflicts when in actual FACT it was all over the OIL Fields?
BEFORE you decide to 'jump down my throat,' I detest the Regime that operates in China just as much as I do the seeming U.S. Ideology that the ENTIRE world SHOULD a carbon copy of the U.S.

Just imagine how much better the world could be if the US devoted its resources to helping our fellows.

@Buttercup Yes, but sadly, FIRST the U.S. desperately NEEDS to clean up its own backyard first and foremost.

3

The only way to stop China from invading Taiwan is to make China believe such a move would be too costly to make. I can only think of two prices China would not want to pay. They are:

  1. Economic
  2. Military defeat.

Any sane person would prefer the first choice over the first. This must then mean we need all countries to tell China a military move against Taiwan means they would be subject to total (100%) economic isolation forever.

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