Heather Cox Richardson

While Russia’s war on Ukraine continues in all its blistering horror, there are glimmerings that suggest Russia’s position in its assault on Ukraine is weakening. A senior U.S. defense official today told reporters that while there is significant fighting going on, the only major military news is that Russia has now launched more than 1000 missiles at Ukraine. Ukraine’s allies are working on supplying Ukraine with long-range air defense systems. The Pentagon also believes the airspace over Ukraine continues to be contested, and tentatively assesses that the morale of Russian soldiers is flagging.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned again today that Russia appears to be considering using chemical weapons and trying to blame the ensuing destruction on Ukraine. Yesterday, President Joe Biden called Putin a war criminal.

Today China, which was allied with Russia when the war began and initially refused to condemn the assault, today declined to co-sponsor a “humanitarian” resolution with Russia at the United Nations. At the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China joined Russia in vetoing resolutions. Then China abstained. Now it is refusing even to co-sponsor a “humanitarian” resolution.

While Chinese state media continues to indicate friendship for Russia, today it showed a video illustrating the story that Russian troops killed people standing in line for bread in Chernihiv, a city in northern Ukraine.

A German newspaper today reported that Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was on a flight on its way to Beijing, but the plane turned around during the flight and returned to Moscow. President Joe Biden and Chinese president Xi Jinping are scheduled to talk tomorrow for the first time since November after U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan met with top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi for seven hours in Rome on Monday.

China has not abandoned support for Russia, but it does appear to be rethinking its position as the world condemns the invasion and has acted in concert to isolate Russia effectively from the global economy. Today Russia did in fact make a $117 million interest payment on its debt, avoiding—for now—a default on its debt. For all Putin’s talk of not needing the international financial system, in the end, he chose to honor the debt, and in dollars rather than in the badly devalued rubles he had threatened.

Pieces continue to move elsewhere in the world, too. Uzbekistan today became the first Central Asian country to openly support the territorial integrity of Ukraine and condemn Russia’s “military actions and aggression.” The Council of Europe, a human rights organization founded in 1949 and consisting of more than 45 member states, yesterday expelled Russia.

It appears that Putin is reacting to the crisis he has launched by turning on some of his key advisors, including military chief General Roman Gavrilov. Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul reacted to this news: “Putin looks like a panicked leader these days, hardly the smart, strong, savvy leader that others assumed he was.”

Today, the Russian Elites, Proxies, and Oligarchs Task Force, known as REPO, issued a joint statement committing to “prioritizing our resources and working together to take all available legal steps to find, restrain, freeze, seize, and, where appropriate, confiscate or forfeit the assets of those individuals and entities that have been sanctioned in connection with Russia’s premeditated, unjust, and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and the continuing aggression of the Russian regime.”

REPO includes Australia, Canada, the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.

While a crackdown on illicit money should squeeze oligarchs, it also has the potential to alter our domestic politics. Recent reports show that politics in the U.K. has been awash in Russian money, and it seems likely that such cash has influenced the U.S. as well. This crackdown, along with new regulations about transparency in shell companies, might affect campaign finance.

The Freedom to Vote Act rejected by the Senate this year would have addressed this issue more effectively; it required any person or entity donating more than $10,000 to a campaign be identified. It would also have protected against the voter suppression laws passed last year in 19 Republican-dominated states, which the Texas primary revealed to be as discriminatory as opponents feared: about 13% of mail-in ballots, 23,000 of them, were rejected in a state that in the past rejected about 1%. Officials in counties that lean Democratic rejected mail-in ballots at a higher rate than officials in counties that lean Republican: 15.1% to 9.1%.

Today, the House of Representatives voted to suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus, permitting the administration to raise tariffs against them. The measure passed by a vote of 424 to 8. The eight votes against the measure came from Republican members Andy Biggs (AZ), Dan Bishop (NC), Lauren Boebert , Matt Gaetz (FL), Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA), Glenn Grothman (WI), Thomas Massie (KY), and Chip Roy (TX), all staunch Trump supporters.

Meanwhile, the support of certain U.S. lawmakers for Russia in this crisis has been a boon to the Russian president. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene is openly pushing Russian talking points, claiming that NATO is supporting Nazis in Ukraine. Russian state TV is replaying Representative Madison Cawthorn’s (R-NC) remarks calling President Zelensky a “thug.”

Today’s other big news came from The Guardian’s Hugo Lowell: the report alleging that Trump lost the 2020 election because of Dominion Voting Systems—a report that Trump used to justify his attempt to overturn the election, including a plan to assume emergency powers—was not written by a volunteer lawyer after the election, as previously understood. In fact, it was written by a senior White House aide, Joanna Miller, who worked for key Trump advisor Peter Navarro. Navarro incorporated the Miller report into one of his own, which he and aides had begun to write two weeks before the election even happened.

That is, it was the White House itself that invented the “report” that the election was stolen, even before the election took place, and then used that report to justify the Big Lie that 19 state legislatures have relied on to restrict voting.

Ukraine’s people are trying to save their democracy from a criminal assault by an autocrat who has perverted his own country’s government, concentrating the nation’s wealth and power in the hands of his cronies, and silencing those who want a say in their government.

That fight is not limited to Ukraine.