Agnostic.com

14 14

LINK Opinion: She Predicted the Coronavirus. What Does She Foresee Next?

Full text:

"I told Laurie Garrett that she might as well change her name to Cassandra. Everyone is calling her that anyway.

She and I were Zooming — that’s a verb now, right? — and she pulled out a 2017 book, “Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.” It notes that Garrett, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, was prescient not only about the impact of H.I.V. but also about the emergence and global spread of more contagious pathogens.

“I’m a double Cassandra,” Garrett said.

She’s also prominently mentioned in a recent Vanity Fair article by David Ewing Duncan about “the Coronavirus Cassandras.”

Cassandra, of course, was the Greek prophetess doomed to issue unheeded warnings. What Garrett has been warning most direly about — in her 1994 best seller, “The Coming Plague,” and in subsequent books and speeches, including TED Talks — is a pandemic like the current one.

She saw it coming. So a big part of what I wanted to ask her about was what she sees coming next. Steady yourself. Her crystal ball is dark.

Despite the stock market’s swoon for it, remdesivir probably isn’t our ticket out, she told me. “It’s not curative,” she said, pointing out that the strongest claims so far are that it merely shortens the recovery of Covid-19 patients. “We need either a cure or a vaccine.”

But she can’t envision that vaccine anytime in the next year, while Covid-19 will remain a crisis much longer than that.

“I’ve been telling everybody that my event horizon is about 36 months, and that’s my best-case scenario,” she said.

“I’m quite certain that this is going to go in waves,” she added. “It won’t be a tsunami that comes across America all at once and then retreats all at once. It will be micro-waves that shoot up in Des Moines and then in New Orleans and then in Houston and so on, and it’s going to affect how people think about all kinds of things.”

They’ll re-evaluate the importance of travel. They’ll reassess their use of mass transit. They’ll revisit the need for face-to-face business meetings. They’ll reappraise having their kids go to college out of state.

So, I asked, is “back to normal,” a phrase that so many people cling to, a fantasy?

“This is history right in front of us,” Garrett said. “Did we go ‘back to normal’ after 9/11? No. We created a whole new normal. We securitized the United States. We turned into an antiterror state. And it affected everything. We couldn’t go into a building without showing ID and walking through a metal detector, and couldn’t get on airplanes the same way ever again. That’s what’s going to happen with this.”

Not the metal detectors, but a seismic shift in what we expect, in what we endure, in how we adapt.

Maybe in political engagement, too, Garrett said.

If America enters the next wave of coronavirus infections “with the wealthy having gotten somehow wealthier off this pandemic by hedging, by shorting, by doing all the nasty things that they do, and we come out of our rabbit holes and realize, ‘Oh, my God, it’s not just that everyone I love is unemployed or underemployed and can’t make their maintenance or their mortgage payments or their rent payments, but now all of a sudden those jerks that were flying around in private helicopters are now flying on private personal jets and they own an island that they go to and they don’t care whether or not our streets are safe,’ then I think we could have massive political disruption.”

“Just as we come out of our holes and see what 25 percent unemployment looks like,” she said, “we may also see what collective rage looks like.”

Garrett has been on my radar since the early 1990s, when she worked for Newsday and did some of the best reporting anywhere on AIDS. Her Pulitzer, in 1996, was for coverage of Ebola in Zaire. She has been a fellow at Harvard’s School of Public Health, was a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and consulted on the 2011 movie “Contagion.”

Her expertise, in other words, has long been in demand. But not like now.

Each morning when she opens her email, “there’s the Argentina request, Hong Kong request, Taiwan request, South Africa request, Morocco, Turkey,” she told me. “Not to mention all of the American requests.” It made me feel bad about taking more than an hour of her time on Monday. But not so bad that I didn’t cadge another 30 minutes on Thursday.

She said she wasn’t surprised that a coronavirus wrought this devastation, that China minimized what was going on or that the response in many places was sloppy and sluggish. She’s Cassandra, after all.

But there is one part of the story she couldn’t have predicted: that the paragon of sloppiness and sluggishness would be the United States.

“I never imagined that,” she said. “Ever.”

The highlights — or, rather, lowlights — include President Trump’s initial acceptance of the assurances by President Xi Jinping of China that all would be well, his scandalous complacency from late January through early March, his cheerleading for unproven treatments, his musings about cockamamie ones, his abdication of muscular federal guidance for the states and his failure, even now, to sketch out a detailed long-range strategy for containing the coronavirus.

Having long followed Garrett’s work, I can attest that it’s not driven by partisanship. She praised George W. Bush for fighting H.I.V. in Africa.

But she called Trump “the most incompetent, foolhardy buffoon imaginable.”

And she’s shocked that America isn’t in a position to lead the global response to this crisis, in part because science and scientists have been so degraded under Trump.

Referring to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta and its analogues abroad, she told me: “I’ve heard from every C.D.C. in the world — the European C.D.C., the African C.D.C., China C.D.C. — and they say, ‘Normally our first call is to Atlanta, but we ain’t hearing back.’ There’s nothing going on down there. They’ve gutted that place. They’ve gagged that place. I can’t get calls returned anymore. Nobody down there is feeling like it’s safe to talk. Have you even seen anything important and vital coming out of the C.D.C.?”

The problem, Garrett added, is bigger than Trump and older than his presidency. America has never been sufficiently invested in public health. The riches and renown go mostly to physicians who find new and better ways to treat heart disease, cancer and the like. The big political conversation is about individuals’ access to health care.

But what about the work to keep our air and water safe for everyone, to design policies and systems for quickly detecting outbreaks, containing them and protecting entire populations? Where are the rewards for the architects of that?

Garrett recounted her time at Harvard. “The medical school is all marble, with these grand columns,” she said. “The school of public health is this funky building, the ugliest possible architecture, with the ceilings falling in.”

“That’s America?” I asked.

“That’s America,” she said.

And what America needs most right now, she said, isn’t this drumbeat of testing, testing, testing, because there will never be enough superfast, super-reliable tests to determine on the spot who can safely enter a crowded workplace or venue, which is the scenario that some people seem to have in mind. America needs good information, from many rigorously designed studies, about the prevalence and deadliness of coronavirus infections in given subsets of people, so that governors and mayors can develop rules for social distancing and reopening that are sensible, sustainable and tailored to the situation at hand.

America needs a federal government that assertively promotes and helps to coordinate that, not one in which experts like Tony Fauci and Deborah Birx tiptoe around a president’s tender ego.

“I can sit here with you for three hours listing — boom, boom, boom — what good leadership would look like and how many more lives would be saved if we followed that path, and it’s just incredibly upsetting.” Garrett said. “I feel like I’m just coming out of maybe three weeks of being in a funk because of the profound disappointment that there’s not a whisper of it.”

Instead of that whisper she hears wailing: the sirens of ambulances carrying coronavirus patients to hospitals near her apartment in Brooklyn Heights, where she has been home alone, in lockdown, since early March. “If I don’t get hugged soon, I’m going to go bananas,” she told me. “I’m desperate to be hugged.”

Me, too. Especially after her omens."

HippieChick58 9 May 3
Share

Enjoy being online again!

Welcome to the community of good people who base their values on evidence and appreciate civil discourse - the social network you will enjoy.

Create your free account

14 comments

Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.

1

Kind of like saying that the Earth will be hit with an asteroid again... Isn't it? You know it will happen!

2

How does she do it? She follows the science closely probably in secret and EXTRAPOLATES the facts theories and future-scoping of legitimate scientists without doing any expensive research or original thinking herself.

3

The virus is one thing but the corrupt GOP, trump enablers are totally responsible for the state of America in this virus event. They have enabled this virus just like they have enabled trump. They have removed, dismantled and distorted every possible tool that was available to keep this event to a status of minimum damage. Everyone knows this and yet they still govern, Mind blowing. How do they fucking live with themselves. Trump is just being himself but what happened to the GOP?

Our Conservatives are sounding a lot like Republicans these days; it's obvious to us that they've put party and power ahead of the needs of Canadians, much like the GOP have in the US. The coronavirus pandemic has made that abundantly clear to both country's populations. We fired the Conservatives, and Americans will have the same opportunity to do with the GOP in November; i hope.

@josephr I don't hold any hope that they will be ousted in November. The GOP will use the voting power of trumps followers to do whatever is necessary to keep their positions and that includes further corruption of the electoral system.I think that in the last 4 years they have reached the point of no return in terms of corruption. But I hope I am wrong! The same type of politics are happening here in Australia. The current PM adores TrumpThe Impeached. Him and his cabinet were voted in last year when it was thought that they wouldn't survive the election. But they manipulated the system enough to win. They are changing our governmental structural integrity just as the GOP has in the U.S. But they have handled the virus event with the responsibility needed (for the most part) which will of course set well with their supporters, which I think will ensure them another term in the next elections, in a couple of years. I hope that their over reach will trip them up enough between now and then, to rectify that situation.

@patchoullijulie The similarities are not accidental.

Our ex-PM Harper heads an organization in the US with a global reach. "Stephen Harper Heads a Global Org That Helps Get Right-Wing Parties Elected. Voter suppression works. Ask the Kochs, Trump and our very own robocall fakers. "

From last fall... [thetyee.ca]

So our Conservatives sound and act just like Republicans. I'm certainly not a conspiracy theorist, but if it smells like skunk-weed it won't be a rose bush.

@josephr Yep on the skunk-weed/rose thing. lol And let's not forget our good o'l pal, Rupert Murdoch. He has so much to answer to also. He and only one other, control all forms of media here, across the board. There is so little neutral news reporting and it is so deep underground that it does not reach the average Australian which makes for easy manipulation of people who are susceptible to sheep mentality anyway. I will check out the info you mentioned.

@patchoullijulie Well said.

1

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Depends whether you're talking about scientific experiments or people. LOL

2

This is a dark prediction. It does seem right on though. I think I'm scared.

4

Once you get past the misleading language ("foresee", "predict", and - for fuck's sake - "Cassandra",) this appears to be a bunch of VERY educated guesses by a woman who knows what's going on.

So what's up with the flowery language? Why not just call her an expert in her field? Jeezes, are we going to call the World Health Organization a den of prophets, too?

@icolan Dr. Tam, the head of Canada's pandemic response team drew up a road map for a coming pandemic back in 2006. She gave the blueprint to our government, which was Conservative at the time. They promptly dismissed and buried her report. No crystal ball, just a competent scientist. [theglobeandmail.com]

Yeah it’s a crap article for that reason. I almost stopped reading it because I’ve no time for woohoo bullshit ( except to laugh at it). The writer of the article should be ashamed for mixing in that magical crap.

3

Jjust last year, my friend and I agreed that a pandemic would happen soon. We must really be plugged into the cosmos. Not!! When these prophets can can give a day, month and year I will consider taking them seriously.
By the way my friend and and I predicted between 2025 and 2050, A spread of 25 years. And we still didn't get it right. It's the story of my life, I can't guarantee to hit a dart board either 🙂

2
3

Isn't it odd/strange how these Prophets/Prophetesses seem to be able to 'predict' events AFTER they have happened already.
To my mind it is kind of like predicting the winner of a Horse a few weeks AFTER the race has been run. i.e.about as credible as saying " there will a power outage in the middle of a power outage."
Surely she had already seen/predicted that she would be needing to be hugged at some time or other.
FSS, what does she take people for, complete mindless fools or what, to me she is nothing short of those Evangelidiots who are constantly predicting the End of the World and when it does not happen coming up with every excuse and apology they can think of.

2

"Just as we come out of our holes and see what 25 percent unemployment looks like,” she said, “we may also see what collective rage looks like.” and "But there is one part of the story she couldn’t have predicted: that the paragon of sloppiness and sluggishness would be the United States."

There are people like her trying to get the word out and if enough people listen maybe something will change in November. If not there will be bloodshed and if the wealthy continue to use greed as their guide it will be directed at them. We may get a worldwide version of the French Revolution.

@motrubl4u That's assuming they have enough to live on, comfortable shelter and meaningful employment. When people start to suffer and their resources become non-existence then all hell often breaks loose. These are signs of a violent rebellion and mos savvy governments pat attention to this.Remember, we are already one of the most violent countries among 'developed' nations.

@motrubl4u No, I'm just giving credit to the fact that we can all be victims of our circumstances. Geography and living conditions can and do shape how we think.

3

"We may also see what collective rage looks like."

I hope this prediction comes to pass.

dkp93 Level 8 May 3, 2020
1

I hate predictions. It is like flying from frying pan to fire

I read somewhere and heard from some that COVID19 disease was predicted in the Bible.

Query the veracity and authenticity of the claim, discussion normally comes to an abrupt end.

And every time a pandemic comes around people pull out their bibles. Pandemics are a result of ignorance and poor management (like no healthcare systems and preparedness programs).

@JackPedigo And depending on your holey bible for protection

3

Nothing new... Pandemics are a part of the human evolutionary stage. It always happens now and in the future. Hey, how come she can't predict the little kids dying in car accidents so parents could avoid this? or maybe predict the next serial killer acts so cops could prevent innocent people from dying, it's all bullshit as they all Generalise the outcome and never offer any specific details... LOL

10

For years, a lot of people were predicting a pandemic. No one could predict tRUMPf and his (non) response and anti-science stance, nor an almost completely complicit Republican party.

Write Comment
You can include a link to this post in your posts and comments by including the text q:492036
Agnostic does not evaluate or guarantee the accuracy of any content. Read full disclaimer.