LINK COVID-19 State of Affairs: Your Local Epidemiologist 10/18/2022
By Katelyn Jetelina MPH PhD YLE
SARS-CoV-2 is having a mixed impact across the globe. The WHO is tracking more than 100 subvariants of Omicron, and each country has a different makeup of “subvariant soup,” but two are winning the race: XBB and BQ.1.1. Couple this with changing behaviors and different immune histories (which wave hit and when; booster uptake), and country-to-country comparisons are getting harder than ever.
But I’m up for a challenge. Here is a snapshot of the current landscape, which is changing quickly.
International trends
In Western Europe, behavior drove the current wave. Thankfully, cases have peaked as it looks like the virus ran out of social networks to follow, but Omicron subvariants (and specifically BQ.1.1) are brewing below the surface. Whether cases continue to descend, plateau, or begin to increase is directly dependent on the number of “susceptible” people the virus can find—the million dollar question.
All eyes are still on Germany, as hospitalizations “for COVID-19” are the highest they have ever been. (Take this with a grain of salt, though, as hospitalizations in Germany have historically been low. So admissions are high, but not outrageous compared to other countries.) The current surge is largely attributed to Oktoberfest as a superspreader event and the fact that Germany’s fall booster rate among 60+ year olds is one of the lowest in Europe thus far.
Also concerning is the quickly rising number of ICU patients in Germany and the fact that 30% of ICU patients are on a ventilator, which is high. In addition, some German hospitals have called for help as a majority of their staff are out sick. In all, excess deaths in Germany are high and increasing.
Moving to Southeast Asia, an Omicron subvariant—XBB—is causing a substantial infection wave (as opposed to behavior). Specifically, Singapore is getting hit hard with a high rate of reinfections due to waning immunity. However, only 15 people total are in the ICU (out of 6 million people). This amazing progress is attributed to:
A highly vaccinated and boosted population, and
A massive BA.2 wave (as opposed to a BA.1 wave, like in the U.S.). This may help as BA.2 is more closely related to XBB than BA.1.
The Singapore Ministry of Health predicts they will peak in mid-November at around 15,000 cases per day—an infection peak much larger than their BA.5 wave but smaller than their first Omicron wave. Their death rate is already far below Germany’s and the U.S.’s, regardless of high case rates. I expect it to remain there.
Then there are places like Japan, Australia, and South Korea that have similar growth rates of BQ.1.1 and XBB. These places will be particularly interesting to watch and see which subvariants win the battle. Or, for the first time in this pandemic, we may witness co-circulation—two subvariants of equal strength circulating at the same time. Time will tell.
United States
It’s incredibly difficult to predict what will happen in the U.S. given that we have such a different immune landscape than other countries. We only have 14.8 million Americans boosted with the fall vaccine—far below what’s needed to divert 100,000 deaths this winter. According to recent models, we are still on track for a fall/winter wave.
The CDC now updates COVID-19 data weekly, so we are getting bursts of information rather than a continuous story line. From last Friday’s new data update, Northeast has the highest proportion of BQ.1.1, which jumped from less than 1% to 11% of cases. Increasing subvariants are causing an uptick in wastewater. In fact, the Northeast is experiencing the highest concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater since last winter.
New York, specifically, has the highest proportion of BQ.1.1—an estimated 25% of cases—in the country. Perhaps more concerning is that it is causing an uptick in hospitalizations. (Keep in mind that reported cases remain flat; these no longer accurately reflect transmission due to at home antigen testing.)
There is very preliminary data (n=1) showing BQ.1.1’s cellular mechanisms are getting close to Delta in regards to disease severity. We need more data, but not a great thing to see.
Bottom line
Cross-country comparisons are less straightforward than ever. However, subvariants are growing, and metrics around the globe are starting to reflect it. COVID-19 transmission is rising in the Northeast United States, which means it’s time to start riding the wave. If you were waiting to get your booster shot, now’s the time to schedule an appointment.
Love, YLE
“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, data scientist, wife, and mom of two little girls. During the day she works at a nonpartisan health policy think tank, and at night she writes this newsletter. Her main goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members.
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Funny how much more knowledgeable and education experienced people like doctor McCullough and Doctor Robert Malone and so many others ,then you have people like this ...
McCullough, prestigious and Malone,100's of patents related to the mRNA technology,Vanderbosshe ,a maker of vaccines who warned about the variants be coming from the vaccine before it even came out ,Bhadti,a multiple award winning microbiologist ,so many have so much more merit ,more experience more education than these people who have no fucking clue...
laidback1
Level 6
Oct 19, 2022
1
Robert Malone is a lying piece of shit.
@Flyingsaucesir that make you feel better
@Flyingsaucesir doesn't make me .. even if it was true he was a liar ,all the others with prestige and merit are all liars too ... Sure
@laidback1 No, it does not make me feel better. It just makes me sad. It's painful to see any scientist betray the core values of science.
@Flyingsaucesir uh huh...I'm sure all the scientists who hung out frequentlywith Jeffery Epstein at Harvard are all innocent...don't you love seeing that picture of Jeffrey in a Harvard shirt...
Funny how you didn't show any evidence of doctor Malone's lies..or how he betrayed...
Funny when people like him talk, they actually go over evidence and talk about what's up ..
Like when one person I listened to recently went over the experiments on viruses ,and he he explained how they were flawed... Can't recall exactly what he said.. but he explained it well . One I recall pretty well was when they injected monkey brains with liver infected with small pox ... And didn't inject a healthy liver to compare.. and there was no symptoms of small pox .. they just fucking died after being injected in the brain with the liver and other substances that I can't recall that also went into the injections...
Anyways
. Enjoy believing in bullshit science by black mailed child rapists that have those flawed experiments as evidence
@laidback1 I've had 4 covid shots (Pfizer) so far, as have everyone in my family and all my friends and their families. None of us have gotten sick from covid or been harmed by the vaccines. Meanwhile, the ICUs, morgues, and cemeteries are full of unvaccinated people. But you go ahead and do you.
I already have mine
Trucia01
Level 3
Oct 19, 2022
0
Astra-Zenica is my guess since you are an Indian love scammer...
@Lizard_of_Ahaz But she is a proud single dad living in AZ....I wonder what her pronouns are.
@BDair From the shit form of English these jackasses use I doubt he knows what a pronoun is.....
I had four shots and so far so good.
Jolanta
Level 9
Oct 19, 2022
4
I've had none ,and never got sick ... Got severely depressed and couldn't eat for a couple days my stomach literally couldn't take it ...so many dead from suicide & overdoses,so many lives destroyed so many nurses dead from suicide,but hey you're good so far ... Good for you , made biillions of people suffer so you could say that ...
@laidback1 what the fuck
@FreethoughtKaty yeah seriously WTF why biillions have to suffer? millions starved to death in Africa ,for what ? You know how many people got hurt because of so many falling for lies
Seriously so far so good for you ,what about the corpses you walk over everyday ,think the dead by suicide nurses are saying so far so good ,the millions who lost their lives so you could have a sense of security and say so far so good ..as fucking millions are dead and injured by you complying
@laidback1 Wow, you do sound very upset and angry. I am just perplex that you are so angry about what I choose for myself, do you hear me being angry at you because you choose what you think is best for yourself? How is it affecting you, my very own choices? Maybe you need to look deep inside of yourself and try to heal that hurt that is there.
@Jolanta you chose to ignore the prestigious doctors and think rationally, but okay .. fear got you ... Still does,it blinds..but it's hard to excuse when I know that you know about Jeffrey Epstein. And I just can't wrap my head around how you can trust the people in power , knowing he was part of the intelligence community, knowing the victims saw cameras, Knowing it is black mail . Using children for blackmail in the most sickening way .. and you still trust these people.. who have done this .. I just can't ever wrap my mind around the rational.. especially when there's been prestigious accomplished people with high merits questioning and calling out what they know .. and instead of listen to the same people connected to Jeffery Epstein ilk
@Jolanta so you didn't notice bill gates being put on a pedestal during this ? He's not a scientist or anything he just has money that he invested.. they put him up as the Major spokesperson
And well.. he admitted to meeting with Jeffery Epstein after he was convicted .. says it was about getting money ...
So when there is two groups of people who have merit prestige etc,and one side has connections to child rape black mail... Gee ..which side is to be trusted?
@laidback1 I am sure that a lot of people met up with Epstein, just like you and me have met up with a lot of people in our lives, we even spent a substantial amount of time with them, however that doesn't meant that we know those people in and out, doesn't mean that we agree with them, doesn't mean that we have any clue to what they think or do. Most paedophiles, killer and thieves do not advertise what they are up to.
@Jolanta you really buy that.. who sees someone who could stand to be in a presence of one that had done that to children... Come Jolanta.. join with humanity... It shouldn't be that hard ... Seriously.. I don't get it .. how can you be okay with that?
Why are you doing this to yourself and others ? Excuses for bill gates seeing that monster? Is Charity? Really now ?
Can you see what has been done to you ?
You are being okay with someone seeing a monster because you don't want to admit that you were wrong .. that you accept this ? You think it's normal? Really since when is this normal???
@Jolanta just wow.. I can't believe you really just said that .. you really just accept that he saw him for thet purpose and that purpose was a good enough excuse? I honestly just can't understand what is wrong with you ?
We really have people like yourself in this world allowing people to socialize with people who do unspeakable acts to children ..
@Jolanta it's like I should have an overwhelming rage for what you just said .. but I luckily I guess been normalized to seeing people being okay with the most sickening things just to make themselves feel better ... The rage is transformed into this numb feeling of disappointment and it's helped tame the rage .. rage doesn't help anyways
. Just clouds judgement...
But damn if you said that to a victim's face .. and they lost their temperament on you and hurt you .. I'm not sure how I'd feel
One hand you're a victim of being a fool ,on the other hand is it really that.. I mean you really just excused a person of socializing with a person who did unspeakable acts to children...
In any sane society, you'd of known to be mocked by a vast majority for what you just said .. but you felt comfortable enough to express that you're okay with what happened
Will anything get through to people like yourself.. or are we really damned to war ...
Is this what can make a war righteous? And unavoidable? Yeah we can't let people doing that to children... As human beings... For our Future generations...
I'm definitely on the side that doesn't hurt children..
@laidback1 You need to take it easy there. You obviously only have one track mind. I wish all the best for you. Probably would be a good idea to get some help with being so fanatical in anything you believe . Nothing but nothing is ever black or white. Take care if not stop calling yourself laid back because you are not.
Having already had my second booster (the original Pfizer), what I would really like to know is, is it worthwhile getting one of the newer vaccines designed to target a specific variant?
Flyingsaucesir
Level 8
Oct 19, 2022
2
Thank you Dr. Katelyn, is the world going to experience yet another lockdown ?That won't be good
LuxBear
Level 4
Oct 18, 2022
2
Not likely, imho.
@Flyingsaucesir Thank you
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