Ugh. No logic (or heart) in your response. Nobody wants your cigar and 135k dead people in half a year don't care what you think are assumptions.

g

@genessa Thank you for your response but perhaps you could clear up a point. No logic? Could you point out the logical fallacy or logical inconsistency that you object to. If you can do so I will be happy to correct my error.

This is not the other infections , very different people are recatching this after recovery, immunity is sketchy at best without vaccine

No it doesn't, it "assume[s] 1% " ....can you try reading before going all weirdly arguementative?!?

@AnneWimsey I read it correctly. The OP stipulated a 1% death rate Then cited a number of dead at 3,282,000. If that represents one percent then the total infected number has to be 328,200,000 or 100% of the population. The way the other 13 complication numbers were derived is not stated,. Unless I have evidence to the contrary I suspect they were simply made up in an attempt to make a point.

bobwjr already did, and you sort of ignored that, so why should i bother?

g

@dumasarok 3 million plus dead will be about the end of August, at this rate. You might want to look up the word "exponential".

Influenza would NOT be far worse, or even worse at all. The death rate is WAY higher from Covid, and the non-lethal side effects are way worse as well. Where are you getting your information?

@AnneWimsey I will ignore the sarcasm. Perhaps intentionally or maybe not, you have missed my point. I question the veracity of the numbers that are being reported. There may be an underlying agenda to the fearmongering. I am a sceptic by nature and to me this does not pass the truth test.

@JeffMurray Jeff, my information is well documented history. You might read up on the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. It was about as lethal as such things can get.

@dumasarok You made it sound like the normal mutating recurring Influenza virus we deal with every year would be worse than Covid 19 if there was 100% infection rate. If you are taking about a SPECIFIC strain like the H1N1 that caused the 1918 pandemic, you should have stated that. Obviously if the deadliest flu pandemic ever had a 100% infection rate it would be worse... but that's a circular argument (i.e. a deadlier virus would be deadlier).

@JeffMurray Your point is well taken, thank you. In the type of conversations we engage in here we normally don't get into all inclusive essay style posts so generalities are common. The point I was trying to convey is that this virus is not unique in it's ability to trigger complications in vulnerable people. Various strains of influenza do the same. I have a friend with severe COPD and a common chest cold could be lethal for her. I'm not trying to minimize covid, I'm trying to inject some perspective into the conversation.

@dumasarok

In the type of conversations we engage in here we normally don't get into all inclusive essay style posts so generalities are common.

You're really gonna try to pull a fast one like that? Earlier in the comments section you called someone out for not citing which fallacy they believe you used, and now you're gonna pretend like it's a super casual discussion?
Remember?

No logic? Could you point out the logical fallacy or logical inconsistency that you object to. If you can do so I will be happy to correct my error.

Get the fuck out of here.

And what did you mean " we normally engage in here"? I've been here longer and have participated much more than you have, so you can keep your 'tips & tricks for success' pointers to yourself.

@JeffMurray you come across really hostile. I don’t think asking for clarification is “calling out”. I must have struck a nerve, sorry about that.

@dumasarok You're right, I'm sorry. I am kinda touchy about the drastic mis/disinformation campaign regarding Covid.

@OldMetalHead who claims there will be "herd immunity"?! Biggest dumb fallacy out thg here! Rush Limbaugh's favorite, in fact.
Ever catch a cold/the flu more than once in your life?

@OldMetalHead how about if you tell me how many colds you have had in you life? That would be an actual Fact, instead of pointless conjecture & "results" from a test tube......

IF you can stop the virus, if you let it fun loose it would infect around 70 to 80% (IF the average human can develop long term immunity).

That's if only 10% of the population gets infected. What about if 80% of them get infected and because this virus is several times more contagious than the flu, that's a realistic expectation if you don't take precautions.

@Lightupmylife That is the big IF there. Every person is different, there are cases of secondary infection (basically leftover of viruses) and real reinfections. But the models don't need that everyone get immune to prevent outbreak. Also we don't need to eradicate the disease, we just need to avoid big outbreaks that will clog the hospitals (of course I am being extremely utilitarian on that point and I know there are humanitarian arguments, but if we try to use them we will tapp into an endless circle of argument).
Some people develop immunity (and is not going down for now), some develop temporary. I think european summer now will give more data as new outbreaks will happen and a lot of the population is "cured" for some months now, enough to get the immunity down according to some predictions.

Anyway there are many variables when discussing the possibility or even the desire of herd immunity.

My first post is that in BEST CASE SCENARIO you only stop the virus over its natural cycle if you sacrifica 1% of 70% of the population, and that for US is around 2kk... Plus the other deaths due to clogged healthy system.

@Pedrohbds Looking at what is taking place around the Country at this moment, my common sense tells me, a lot of people are still yet to die! And we are not even in the winter months which apparently makes the virus spread worse. Ultraviolet rays is helping us now, but we will be short that by fall! And what about the unknown number of damaged people? This is clearly a disaster in the making!

@OwlInASack
The vitamin D case is something very difficult to say.
The study said that most of covid patients had low vitamin D in the body... What they forget is that this was the end of european winter, where nights are long and people don't go outside with exposed skin, so the whole fucking continent will have low vitamin D.
As seen in Brazil for example, the temperature or sun amount does not seem to matter since the temperate south and the equatorial north are being affected the same way.

@OwlInASack
aaah yes, lighter skin makes you absorb more light and more D vitamin, also makes you have more skin cancer.
But anyway, it is nor covid-related

@OwlInASack North Italy is highly white also, whiter than the southern Italians, and the outbreak was in the north, not in the south...
Also Sweden and Norway is basically the same people, same culture, same economy, same structure. Actually Norway has more mountains and the villages are in the shadow.
Different handling with pandemics, very different results.
Whatever biologic differences they are marginal on the final result (if some effect at all).

@Freedompath You are right there about winter and the virus spreads. In Australia we are now in the mids of winter and the virus is breaking out again. The state of Victoria has been hit hard. Melbourne is in lock down. Sydney (NSW) is also having new cases. Canberra after no virus for a month suddenly has four people with it. So be careful.

Ummm, in the second paragraph it states "1%"...try reading?

@AnneWimsey Let me reiterate.

The total deaths in 2020 from Covid19 in the U.S. is highly unlikely to exceed 330,000, FAR BELOW the 3,282,000 stated in the post.

And by the end of August that will reach around 3,000,000+, just like it states....do you understand "exponential"?

@AnneWimsey I do. I stand by my 330k limit for 2020.
[cdc.gov]

@PBuck0145 ummmm, I would bet money (and I am not a bettor) that by the end of September USA cases will exceed 30,000,000.....go look up "expomential" and get your head out of the sand

@AnneWimsey I hope you know that we are discussing DEATHS, not cases.

@PBuck0145 we'll talk in 30 more days, when you have had a chance to See what EXPONENTIAL actually means.......

@AnneWimsey Thank you for your condescension. You are truly a legend in your own mind.