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Are the democracies facing our “Shame of Munich” choice in Ukraine? I think the parallels are strikingly similar. Do we say no to the aggression now, or wait for Estonia, Latvia, Finland, and Lithuania to be claimed as “traditionally Russian”? Is Chamberlain’s “ Peace in our time” an option?

Call Putin’s bluff or fold on Ukraine?

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Garban 8 Feb 21
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15 comments

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0

Heat-seeking Javelins and Stingers will take their toll of Russian tanks and helicopters.

0

The bear is growling. Not bluffing.

0

It certainly is a shame that the nuclear missles were removed. I hope the Ukrainians make it as expensive as possible, and whatever the west can do to support that is all for the better. Sadly, I believe the US has weapon systems that could easily destroy most the assets Putin has lined up, but they are too secret to reveal (so what good are they?).

1

Maybe it doesn't have a simple answer. If he invades, he doesn't just get to cash his chips and leave. There very likely will be an ongoing revolt in Ukraine that will cost lives and money. Mass media and instant news has changed the nature of war in the last eighty years, insurgent attrition has replaced the battlefield. Maybe this was the plan all along, make Ukraine increasingly hostile and Western and force Putin into a war he can't win.

Yes, There’s almost always another hand to play; unless you’re playing in the 1940’s.

1

The USA has very little leverage against Russia.
We don't trade much with them, so we can't hurt them economically.
We can't put a conventional army in place large enough to defeat Russia in the Ukraine.
We can't fight a nuclear war with Russia.
It's up to the European countries who trade with Russia to hurt them with embargoes.

BD66 Level 8 Feb 21, 2022

I think NATO can cripple the Russian economy! I have old ratio stamps in my grandparents memorial drawer. Do the members of NATO have the resolve of our elders?

@Garban Western Europe can do that. The USA cannot. All we can do is try to convince them to do so.

1

The current military exercises by Russia and Belarus were planned seven years ago and NATO was informed. I do not think the weather is going to be Russia's favour for invasion. It is too warm and wet.
What Putin may be thinking is, carry on with the exercise, collect the data and leave much of the infrastructure in place until autumn/return of the cold in central Europe.
Germany is the key to European aid, they must be held over a barrel as far as resources are concerned. If the German people are threatened with freezing and unable to cook Christmas dinner or go to work, then Putin can do what he wants.
The UK doesn't have an army anymore and what it has is poorly maintained after Iraq and Afghanistan both in troops and equipment.
France is a viable ally of Ukraine as is Poland, both having militaries capable of dealing out punishment.
Canada is a bit far away and won't do anything on a war footing without the USA's say so.
The USA has elections on the way, so does the American public has the stomach for war with Russia?
Another option is for Putin to recognise the breakaway regions and move in under invitation of their leaders. The problem here is the UN recognising Ukraine as a whole, not bits. Russia could occupy the separatist held areas and stop there. This would be their best option, but likely will drive Ukraine into joining NATO as soon as possible or ally with NATO.
This would cause a new Cold War.
Now, what will China tell us to do?

I left out the spit the pot 45/55 and both sides start another hand - to reflect your last option.

@Garban and then very suddenly things grew worse...
I cannot see a route away from war now. Putin may have Russia a course for global war or civil war. Putin cannot back down, but if sanctions bite hard on the Russian people then there could be a collapse of society there.
Ukraine could cede the territory in the east and recognise that part as separate sovereign states and then hurry along membership of NATO.

1

I don't know what to expect these days. Putin is crazy enough to invade the Ukraine but I sure hope he doesn't. Europe has a very long and unprecedented period of peace, only interrupted by the war that led to the separation of Yugoslavia. From my side, I'm just hoping for the best.

1

Gotta say though Ukraine`s President is a joke. He used to be an actor who played a President on TV and is now their President for real. Much like our previous joke of a President for which this country is yet to fully recover from, if ever. I don't see this ending well for Ukraine as he is outmatched and unqualified both militarily and otherwise. Europe and the west will have to fully back them or they are lost!

Can you imagine the stress that poor bastard is under? His only options as a leader right now is to inspire or panic. I personally think he’s doing a great job inspiring. Evacuation of civilians would only cause desperation and whet the appetite of the wolf.

1

I hope when you said, "the democracies" you weren't including the United States, home of gerrymandering and the absence of equal rights, a place with a legal system free of justice. If the United States is a Democracy, then Putin is a kind, old man.

Ukraine is the “gambling POT” in my analogy. Sorry to be blunt however they have no say so. When I use the term we or democracies I mean an imaginary 100% united NATO.

While we are a pretend democracy, we did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

0

What does Europe/ Ukraine want us to do?
Russia has heating oil and a military. Both of which affect Europe/ Ukraine.

Should we follow Ukraine's lead? Which is.....

twill Level 7 Feb 21, 2022
5

I feel this is a very serious situation. Our position is weaker due to tRump publicly dissing NATO. It gave Putin the idea that NATO is weak, so he has acted upon that idea. If we do not stop him now, there will be a much larger problem to deal with soon afterward.

i agree . Seems we were set up for this

Just imagine how much worse Ukraine and the rest of Europe would be if T-rump was still President.

@Shaggy2018 No, I will not think about that. It would prevent me from getting any sleep at night if I did think about that.

4

You left off the option, "He's not bluffing and we should stand against him." That doesn't necessarily raise the stakes, just show resolve.

I should have used all of the poker analogies.
Check- continue to stand
Raise- increase the stakes
All In - Immediately sign 🇺🇦 into NATO.
Fold

@Garban You did use them all, but not all possible combinations. No problem though.

@Paul4747 Somebody on the news who knows Putin well, sorry but I don’t remember the name, compared him to a poker player not a chess player. I liked his line of thinking and ham handed it here to seduce the members thoughts.🤨

1

Well thought out and simple Poll

Thank you, I’m new to the community and polls are my clumsy way getting to know the members.

2

I think they should sanction Russia, it's leaders, and Putin.

Immediately? Awhile ago? Wait for boots on the ground?

@Garban We should do it right now.

3

I suggest we immediately send over a couple dozen fully armed fighters, a few dozen tanks, and a flotilla, for, you know, those joint military exercises with Ukraine which were planned months ago😉, check

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