Not my research or authorship, but good details.
By Thea Page.
How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States? There are two problems with this question. It neglects the law of large numbers and it assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.
The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead. Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.
The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?
What about the people who survive?
For every one person who dies:
19 more require hospitalization.
18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
10 will have permanent lung damage.
3 will have strokes.
2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.
So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:
3,282,000 people dead.
62,358,000 hospitalized.
59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
9,846,000 people with strokes.
6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.
Thats the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.
The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.
-Franklin Veaux
45
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27 comments
Feel free to reply to any comment by clicking the "Reply" button.The numbers posted are bogus. The death rate is approximately 1% of THOSE WHO ARE CONFIRMED INFECTED (about 1% of the population). So the death rate will be about 0.01% OF THE POPULATION.
PBuck0145
Level 7
July 13, 2020
0
IF you can stop the virus, if you let it fun loose it would infect around 70 to 80% (IF the average human can develop long term immunity).
That's if only 10% of the population gets infected. What about if 80% of them get infected and because this virus is several times more contagious than the flu, that's a realistic expectation if you don't take precautions.
@Lightupmylife That is the big IF there. Every person is different, there are cases of secondary infection (basically leftover of viruses) and real reinfections. But the models don't need that everyone get immune to prevent outbreak. Also we don't need to eradicate the disease, we just need to avoid big outbreaks that will clog the hospitals (of course I am being extremely utilitarian on that point and I know there are humanitarian arguments, but if we try to use them we will tapp into an endless circle of argument).
Some people develop immunity (and is not going down for now), some develop temporary. I think european summer now will give more data as new outbreaks will happen and a lot of the population is "cured" for some months now, enough to get the immunity down according to some predictions.
Anyway there are many variables when discussing the possibility or even the desire of herd immunity.
My first post is that in BEST CASE SCENARIO you only stop the virus over its natural cycle if you sacrifica 1% of 70% of the population, and that for US is around 2kk... Plus the other deaths due to clogged healthy system.
@Pedrohbds Looking at what is taking place around the Country at this moment, my common sense tells me, a lot of people are still yet to die! And we are not even in the winter months which apparently makes the virus spread worse. Ultraviolet rays is helping us now, but we will be short that by fall! And what about the unknown number of damaged people? This is clearly a disaster in the making!
@OwlInASack
The vitamin D case is something very difficult to say.
The study said that most of covid patients had low vitamin D in the body... What they forget is that this was the end of european winter, where nights are long and people don't go outside with exposed skin, so the whole fucking continent will have low vitamin D.
As seen in Brazil for example, the temperature or sun amount does not seem to matter since the temperate south and the equatorial north are being affected the same way.
@OwlInASack
aaah yes, lighter skin makes you absorb more light and more D vitamin, also makes you have more skin cancer.
But anyway, it is nor covid-related
@OwlInASack North Italy is highly white also, whiter than the southern Italians, and the outbreak was in the north, not in the south...
Also Sweden and Norway is basically the same people, same culture, same economy, same structure. Actually Norway has more mountains and the villages are in the shadow.
Different handling with pandemics, very different results.
Whatever biologic differences they are marginal on the final result (if some effect at all).
@Freedompath You are right there about winter and the virus spreads. In Australia we are now in the mids of winter and the virus is breaking out again. The state of Victoria has been hit hard. Melbourne is in lock down. Sydney (NSW) is also having new cases. Canberra after no virus for a month suddenly has four people with it. So be careful.
Ummm, in the second paragraph it states "1%"...try reading?
@AnneWimsey Let me reiterate.
The total deaths in 2020 from Covid19 in the U.S. is highly unlikely to exceed 330,000, FAR BELOW the 3,282,000 stated in the post.
And by the end of August that will reach around 3,000,000+, just like it states....do you understand "exponential"?
@AnneWimsey I do. I stand by my 330k limit for 2020.
[cdc.gov]
@PBuck0145 ummmm, I would bet money (and I am not a bettor) that by the end of September USA cases will exceed 30,000,000.....go look up "expomential" and get your head out of the sand
@AnneWimsey I hope you know that we are discussing DEATHS, not cases.
@PBuck0145 we'll talk in 30 more days, when you have had a chance to See what EXPONENTIAL actually means.......
@AnneWimsey Thank you for your condescension. You are truly a legend in your own mind.
It's not the 1% mortality but the 20% hospitalization that will destroy us, if these figures are correct.
Paul4747
Level 8
July 12, 2020
8
@Decieven IF, big IF, there us actually "herd immunity"....anybody ever have more than one cold, or the flu more than once? Rush Limbaugh is fond of saying "herd immunity".....just sayin'
The numbers are perhaps somewhat misleading and endlessly debatable. But the point remains that the virus not only kills some people but maims many others. As for the economy, the administration in the U.S. is far more concerned about profitability for the 1% and re-election in November than they are about protecting the health of the population.
nicestuff
Level 7
July 13, 2020
7
Go look up the meaning of "exponential" & then re-read!
@AnneWimsey He's not saying that they will be successful, just that that's what their thinking was (which is accurate).
@JeffMurray " they" will not be successful, nor will we, in the face of a single-minded virus that just wants to multiply! Read up on "EXPONENTIAL" & be very afraid
@AnneWimsey I don't know what you're trying to say. @nicestuff wasn't talking about anything other than how misguided the administration is/was and was absolutely correct about it. I'm a nurse working the front lines of this pandemic, and was preaching how bad this was going to get long before most everyone else. By mid March I was explaining how this virus was already 37 times deadlier than the regular flu and way more contagious. I was keeping a personal spreadsheet of US and global data points, and trying to educate people why what the administration and some of what health organizations were telling the public was not true. BUT THAT'S NOT WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE...
How about "Wear your damn face masks, and kill the spread of the disease like all of the other developed countries on earth!"
That's a better slogan.
BD66
Level 8
July 13, 2020
7
Wish it were that easy . Our Sheriff will not enforce the mask requirements and an awful lot of the population doesn't want to comply .
Not all the developed countries.
Russia has a problem.
So does Brazil.
Gee... the US, Russia, and Brazil. What do these countries have in common?
Right-wing leaders (either wanna-be dictators or dictator).
BD66:
@HumanistJohn Have you ever heard of BRIC
Brazil
Russia
India
China
Those are Emerging Markets countries, not Developed Market countries, and the fact that we are doing worse than Brazil, Russia, India, and China at controlling COVID-19 is pathetic.
A minor technicality- about 4% of diagnosed cases in the US died. There are a lot of confounding factors to making any detailed analysis of SARS Corona-2 at this point. But it is totally impossible for any honest, competent, and informed person to conclude that S-C2 is not extremely dangerous.
Ignoring it is like playing Russian roulette, the more times you pull the trigger the less likely you are to survive.
Detritus
Level 7
July 13, 2020
6
Where did you get this 1% figure? There have been over 3 million cases of the virus so far in the USA and over 135,000 deaths. If you do the math you see that the death rate is over 4%.
nicknotes
Level 8
July 13, 2020
6
1% was one of the early figures of mortality, I am sure that figure has been growing.
The poster assumes 1% (which was true at one point, just about 6 weeks ago)) as a basis to extrapolate. It might be a good idea to be horrified at just what 1% has brought, and then look up the meaning of "exponential" instead of nitpicking one thing......
@HippieChick58 @AnneWimsey However, the 3 million cases number is believed to be undercounting the true number by ten times. That makes the mortality rate more like 0.4%. The undercounting rate is an unsubstantiated estimate, so mortality may be anywhere from 0.4 to 4%. Thus, 1-2% is still a pretty good number.
@Triphid No, nothing like that. I have no idea how you could have inferred that!! This country should have been placed on a war footing with the same attitude. We see what works in Europe and elsewhere. The people who should be sacrificed are our fake dictator and administration who, in circumstances requiring him to lead or get out of the way, does neither. As long as he obstructs real action, we are on a road to maximum casualties, and the blood will be on the GOP's hands forever.
A good point, and I wish it was made more often. People should point out that economically at the very least, we are as a whole, going to be paying for the disease, though everything from lost consumer spending to higher health insurance bills for the rest of our lives. For some people you just have to point out that, it is going to hit them personally in the purse, that seems to be the only thing some understand.
Though there is one small way in which your figures could be miss read to give a false impression, which is that the numbers with symptoms like strokes, heart damage and loss of cognitive function, can not simply be added, there will be a lot of overlap with perhaps most victims having several long term effects.
Fernapple
Level 9
July 13, 2020
6
We find that 1% turns out to be a very big number. Just look at the tax cuts that the top 1% got. Next look at the stimulus and how that all worked out.
DenoPenno
Level 9
July 13, 2020
5
Yeah.|Stimulus.
Let's see...
I hear that the catholic church got 1.4 Billion.
betsy devod got millions.
The list goes on.
But orange blob and his crime family and hid other psrtnrtd-in0crime (read republicans, aka repugs, are against extending unemployment benefits to people who need the money to eat and keep a roof over their head. As gutless graham said, "over my dead body."
When push comes to shove, all the right-wing cares about is keeping the rich, rich.
Oh yeah... and gun manufacturer's profits.
That is sure a ‘wake-up’ call to me! These numbers may not cover people who die because they were afraid to seek emergency treatment. Who wants their loved ones to die with this Covind-19, or themselves? I am not interested in dying now! Nor, being left to fend off complications, should I get and recover from this virus! We need a coordinated country wide plan, on what is needed to maintain this virus to its lowest levels! Otherwise, I plan to mostly become a hermit until a vaccine is available! 
Freedompath
Level 9
July 13, 2020
5
In many places right now, I would be scared shitless to go to an ER for anything!
@AnneWimsey We must stay healthy! Most older adults die in winter, so we have summer on our side...come winter it will be a double wammy...the virus intensified and ‘older people die in winter months!’ Lol. But, I will be hanging out right here, keeping my health intact! I suggest the same for you! We will ‘go’ when we get...good and damn ready!
The latest data is that this is like the "cold." Same family of virus. Immunity might last less than 90 days perhaps much less. Antibodies last just a few weeks. The vaccination must account for this. We may need it much more often than the "flu" vaccine.
Theresa_N
Level 8
July 13, 2020
4
It for sure not all cut and dried...and the smart people are not afraid to say so! I would never at this point settle on an ‘absolute’ ...to many variables!
Could we just add the vaccine to all our sugar then?
I don't know how they'll handle the vaccine situation if what I've read is true and I have no reason to doubt it. They haven't found a vaccine for the common cold yet and it's a coronavirus.
@Freedompath No, that can't be right. When it gets warm outside, it's going to go away like a miracle. I have that on good authority from someone who had a really big uuh brain.
@JeffMurray ...did you do your ‘due-diligence’ on that notion? The size of something can be deceiving as to it’s abilities! 
Actually, the cold is either a rhino virus 40% or Coronavirus 20%. An anti-viral agent is being developed that should be effective for ALL the rhinoviruses! A similar technique should be possible for the coronaviruses; just not that quickly, unfortunately. I've been led to understand that a vaccine for covid would confer longer lasting immunity. The problem is this thing mutates frequently, so it is unclear if the vaccine will be effective for newer strains.
@racocn8 do you have any idea how much money would fall on someone who invented a cure and/or preventative for the common cold? Been worked on intensively for 50 years or more, and how's that going? So explain how magically that's going to appear now........
@AnneWimsey It has been a little while since I saw the article, and firstly, I may have misrepresented because this only works on rhinoviruses (40% of colds). Apparently, they do all share a common feature which is a cleft in a critical protein. The cure is a drug which is not toxic, etc. and binds irreversibly into this cleft such that, while bound, changes the three-dimensional conformation. This change stops the protein from functioning, and the virus is no longer infectious. I gather that UCI is pursuing a similar strategy on Covid's protease. I expect this is being sought for the spike protein too. It is no small feat to find a molecule with all the electromagnetic features in the right 3D shape, and, not be toxic in some way. Obviously, this is a task for supercomputers, but still not at all simple or even straightforward. You don't want to know how the immune system develops binding for unknown antigens. Unbelievable. Evolution to the rescue... again!!! (Hint: variable and hypervariable DNA regions).
Total bullshit prognostications. I'd believe in Jesus first.
Silver1wun
Level 7
July 12, 2020
3
Well good luck to you. Perhaps it is time for you to not be on this web site anymore.
@Jolanta Rejecting what is imaginary is what this site seems to be about. Hooved political cult followers who try to spread THEIR beliefs under the guise of being non-believers are really comic characters.
So YOUR pie isn't in the sky; so propagation of YOUR faith is done appropriately with propaganda. Bully for you!
There isn't ten cents worth of difference between political cults and "religious" ones. Suckers one and all! Herd politics, no matter which party (denomination) is about salvation and protection. AND, it always costs money to support the buncombe. After all, pastors who become millionaires by serving (servicing) you don't come cheap.
Does any sane person really believe that one or another opposing political cult has a monopoly on bullshit? Welcome to religion (literally) 'on the hoof'. 
So, to whom shall I address the sympathy card after your death?
@AnneWimsey If any of them felt a need for sympathy you'd probably need a box of cards.
@Silver1wun you need to look up the word "exponential" and then re -read the original post. All of what it says is happening right now & going to get much, much worse VERY soon!
@AnneWimsey At least we agree that things are getting worse.
What, how, by whom and why can be better disclosed by scrutinizing individual and group actions. Stated motives and self-labeling are seldom consistent with actions or their results.
Death never visits at a convenient time for individuals or empires. Nature is a playwright. Regardless of the story, setting and cast, there's always Act III.
Excellent post & I wish my brother would get it!
You forgot about overwhelmed hospitals/emergency rooms so that sufferers from other conditons die or are permanently impaired....stroke, heart attacks, broken bones, not getting prompt treatment is a Problem!
AnneWimsey
Level 9
July 13, 2020
3
These numbers are a punch to the gut. I really wish people would take it more seriously! It's people who deny the facts that are making it worse for all of us.
BAMFRavenclaw
Level 5
July 12, 2020
3
Sobering stuff, and I have two kids. If things continue to spiral (I live in Florida), I grow more concerned about schools re-opening and the possibility for super spreader events left and right.
DavidCavalleri
Level 4
July 14, 2020
2
This article is a good example of the kinds of pitfalls in thinking that we all are subject to at times, and reminds of us how we need to beware of such pitfalls. Of course, we were told early on that the large majority of cases of COVID-19 were not severe. Looks like that wasn't necessarily entirely true.
And all this is the kind of thing that really f---ing scares me about this virus.
AlasBabylon
Level 8
July 13, 2020
2
And we will not know the true extent of the long term effects, for perhaps twenty years.
IMHO, hospitals are over inflating the numbers. If they show it as a COVID death, they can get extra money from the government. So, they pressure these doctors to say that its COVID related death based on a pre existing condition.
Trod
Level 5
July 12, 2020
2
Do you have any evidence to support any aspect of your opinion?
That’s fraud and still very much illegal.
If anything, the numbers are under reported because they are not being counted as covid unless they die in hospital in many cases. The homeless are particularly hit because who checks if a homeless person has died of pneumonia or covid?
This is one of the more ridiculous posts I have seen. It conforms to the pattern of supposing that every public service or progressive initiative is a self-serving scam to gull money out of the public. It's quite despicable to accuse people who put their lives on the line taking care of others of lying for gain.
CDC or the Health Dept would not be reporting deaths other than what they are. They are the ones keeping tract, they use that data too, so it needs to be accurate as possible.
this "more deaths, more money" hoax is being retold in every country, and there are a total of 0 official documents from governments around the world (or on top of it for the flat earthers) stating that they give money based on the number of patients.
You wish it was so.
Sorry, you're misinformed. Unless doctors are misreporting which can get their licenses pulled, they have to enter the correct diagnosis. The coder who fills the information in will follow up with the doctor if there are any questions. The hospital has to be able to bill the insurance companies correctly. This all goes into a national data base reported to the CDC amongst other places. The patients get billed based on treatments and diagnosis, and yes, they often read their bills. Then they call the billing office and tell customer service that "hey, this was not the correct diagnosis," and then the coder is notified to check with the doctor and the records get corrected and CDC is notified. All sorts of reports go out from hospitals. Over inflating the numbers JUST DOES NOT HAPPEN. Aside from the fines that can be and are levied against the hospitals, doctors, and staff, there are so many hands on those reports checking for accuracy, no false information does not go out. And if the staff knows that false information is going out they can blow that damn whistle and make some money. I worked in hospital billing, it is complex, time consuming, and heavily scrutinized.
"They get $$ from the government"......ummmmm what?
You don't get to just lie and claim another cause of death. That's not how it works. A doctor, risking malpractice, would have to state a false cause of death on the death certificate. Are you getting your info from Fox News?!
Franklin Veaux can really be a buzzkill, can't he ?
TO_BY
Level 7
July 12, 2020
1
The truth hurts, but it will also set us free.
Where is god in all this?
waitingforgodo
Level 8
July 16, 2020
1
Haven't you heard, god it a man made construct to control other people. There is no god. Nada. Zilch. Zero. Finis.
The death rate in NYC was 1% and the hospitalization rate 3% of those infected (using antibody testing of population samples by the city to estimate the total number of infections). However, it appears that the death rate is lower for the recent outbreaks, because fewer old people are getting infected and treatment is better. Long-term organ damage is definitely a concern, but to my knowledge there are no comprehensive numbers about how frequent it is.
NeverSure
Level 5
July 15, 2020
1
I had a terrible thought, but these aholes are bringing it out. How about “The Karmic Klowns” - whooping and dancing around outside the windows of dying Covid patients. “Soooooo ..... It was fake huh? How does fake feel? Looks like it hurts!! YeeeeeHaw! Yummmm - it is delicious to watch you hurt!”
And “heyyyy there! I heard GOD was going to protect you? How did that work out for you?!?!? Ha! HA! It must hurt to die!!”
Dancing and prancing, like monkeys on Adderall! Hey - is that your wife crying?! I wonder - will your kids care? Oooooooh - what's going to happen to your body??? The oven? We could cook popcorn too then! YeeeeeeeeYipppie Hoooooooo!"
Observer-Effect
Level 7
July 14, 2020
1
I have no problem laughing at the results of stupidity & willful ignorance. It's the least I could do, especially when that stupidity puts me & mine in danger. Too bad, so sad, I will gladly supply cheese & crackers for any Covid Parties somebody wants to throw.
It is NOT 1% of the TOTAL population. False reference point. Many of the stats above are far out speculations. We do not have enough data for any of those "statistics." Especially because the idiots keep lumping people "who had the virus and died," with those "who have died FROM the virus."
There are many millions more who have had exposure, and show little to no symptoms. Most of these people have not been tested, and probably never will be.
A correct statement: """The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” """
Profoundingly misleading::::"""The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19."""
Stupid statement. Everyone will not "Get" covid-19. And 99% of those who do, will recover, most without symptoms.
We cannot control the spread of viruses. To think so demonstrates a complete lack of thinking.
The US cannot survive being locked down forever. Already the lock downs have started the process of increased suicide, murder, domestic violence, and decades of suffering from losing business, losing savings, the coming explosions of evictions will be devasting, lack of income, food, housing,...
Worldwide: The food supply for the planet has been interrupted to the point the there is expected 100-300 million starving to death in the next two years.
And trillions of dollars in debt.
Staying open was the reasonable choice. Sweden did not close, and the death rate is lower than in the US.
And::: most people get the china 19 from others in their homes. So lockdowns increase probable death.
JacarC
Level 8
July 25, 2020
0
There's been a lot of inconsistency in how we record what happens to people with covid versus what happens to people because of covid... any citations for these numbers?
Tanstaafl
Level 3
July 16, 2020
0
As I posted, not my research or authorship.
I'll take that as a no then.
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